Tag Archives: science communication

AI Can’t Do Science…And Neither Can Other Humans

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Seen on Twitter:

I don’t know the context here, so I can’t speak to what Prof. Cronin meant. But it got me thinking.

Suppose you, like Prof. Cronin, were to insist that AI “cannot in principle” do science, because AI “is not autonomous” and “does not come up with its own problems to solve”. What might you mean?

You might just be saying that AI is bad at coming up with new problems to solve. That’s probably fair, at least at the moment. People have experimented with creating simple “AI researchers” that “study” computer programs, coming up with hypotheses about the programs’ performance and testing them. But it’s a long road from that to reproducing the much higher standards human scientists have to satisfy.

You probably don’t mean that, though. If you did, you wouldn’t have said “in principle”. You mean something stronger.

More likely, you might mean that AI cannot come up with its own problems, because AI is a tool. People come up with problems, and use AI to help solve them. In this perspective, not only is AI “not autonomous”, it cannot be autonomous.

On a practical level, this is clearly false. Yes, machine learning models, the core technology in current AI, are set up to answer questions. A user asks something, and receives the model’s prediction of the answer. That’s a tool, but for the more flexible models like GPT it’s trivial to turn it into something autonomous. Just add another program: a loop that asks the model what to do, does it, tells the model the result, and asks what to do next. Like taping a knife to a Roomba, you’ve made a very simple modification to make your technology much more dangerous.

You might object, though, that this simple modification of GPT is not really autonomous. After all, a human created it. That human had some goal, some problem they wanted to solve, and the AI is just solving the problem for them.

That may be a fair description of current AI, but insisting it’s true in principle has some awkward implications. If you make a “physics AI”, just tell it to do “good physics”, and it starts coming up with hypotheses you’d never thought of, is it really fair to say it’s just solving your problem?

What if the AI, instead, was a child? Picture a physicist encouraging a child to follow in their footsteps, filling their life with physics ideas and rhapsodizing about the hard problems of the field at the dinner table. Suppose the child becomes a physicist in turn, and finds success later in life. Were they really autonomous? Were they really a scientist?

What if the child, instead, was a scientific field, and the parent was the general public? The public votes for representatives, the representatives vote to hire agencies, and the agencies promise scientists they’ll give them money if they like the problems they come up with. Who is autonomous here?

(And what happens if someone takes a hammer to that process? I’m…still not talking about this! No-politics-rule still in effect, sorry! I do have a post planned, but it will have to wait until I can deal with the fallout.)

At this point, you’d probably stop insisting. You’d drop that “in principle”, and stick with the claim I started with, that current AI can’t be a scientist.

But you have another option.

You can accept the whole chain of awkward implications, bite all the proverbial bullets. Yes, you insist, AI is not autonomous. Neither is the physicist’s child in your story, and neither are the world’s scientists paid by government grants. Each is a tool, used by the one, true autonomous scientist: you.

You are stuck in your skull, a blob of curious matter trained on decades of experience in the world and pre-trained with a couple billion years of evolution. For whatever reason, you want to know more, so you come up with problems to solve. You’re probably pretty vague about those problems. You might want to see more pretty pictures of space, or wrap your head around the nature of time. So you turn the world into your tool. You vote and pay taxes, so your government funds science. You subscribe to magazines and newspapers, so you hear about it. You press out against the world, and along with the pressure that already exists it adds up, and causes change. Biological intelligences and artificial intelligences scurry at your command. From their perspective, they are proposing their own problems, much more detailed and complex than the problems you want to solve. But from yours, they’re your limbs beyond limbs, sight beyond sight, asking the fundamental questions you want answered.

Bonus Material for “How Hans Bethe Stumbled Upon Perfect Quantum Theories”

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I had an article last week in Quanta Magazine. It’s a piece about something called the Bethe ansatz, a method in mathematical physics that was discovered by Hans Bethe in the 1930’s, but which only really started being understood and appreciated around the 1960’s. Since then it’s become a key tool, used in theoretical investigations in areas from condensed matter to quantum gravity. In this post, I thought I’d say a bit about the story behind the piece and give some bonus material that didn’t fit.

When I first decided to do the piece I reached out to Jules Lamers. We were briefly office-mates when I worked in France, where he was giving a short course on the Bethe ansatz and the methods that sprung from it. It turned out he had also been thinking about writing a piece on the subject, and we considered co-writing for a bit, but that didn’t work for Quanta. He helped me a huge amount with understanding the history of the subject and tracking down the right sources. If you’re a physicist who wants to learn about these things, I recommend his lecture notes. And if you’re a non-physicist who wants to know more, I hope he gets a chance to write a longer popular-audience piece on the topic!

If you clicked through to Jules’s lecture notes, you’d see the word “Bethe ansatz” doesn’t appear in the title. Instead, you’d see the phrase “quantum integrability”. In classical physics, an “integrable” system is one where you can calculate what will happen by doing an integral, essentially letting you “solve” any problem completely. Systems you can describe with the Bethe ansatz are solvable in a more complicated quantum sense, so they get called “quantum integrable”. There’s a whole research field that studies these quantum integrable systems.

My piece ended up rushing through the history of the field. After talking about Bethe’s original discovery, I jumped ahead to ice. The Bethe ansatz was first used to think about ice in the 1960’s, but the developments I mentioned leading up to it, where experimenters noticed extra variability and theorists explained it with the positions of hydrogen atoms, happened earlier, in the 1930’s. (Thanks to the commenter who pointed out that this was confusing!) Baxter gets a starring role in this section and had an important role in tying things together, but other people (Lieb and Sutherland) were involved earlier, showing that the Bethe ansatz indeed could be used with thin sheets of ice. This era had a bunch of other big names that I didn’t have space to talk about: C. N. Yang makes an appearance, and while Faddeev comes up later, I didn’t mention that he had a starring role in the 1970’s in understanding the connection to classical integrability and proposing a mathematical structure to understand what links all these different integrable theories together.

I vaguely gestured at black holes and quantum gravity, but didn’t have space for more than that. The connection there is to a topic you might have heard of before if you’ve read about string theory, called AdS/CFT, a connection between two kinds of world that are secretly the same: a toy model of gravity called Anti-de Sitter space (AdS) and a theory without gravity that looks the same at any scale (called a Conformal Field Theory, or CFT). It turns out that in the most prominent example of this, the theory without gravity is integrable! In fact, it’s a theory I spent a lot of time working with back in my research days, called N=4 super Yang-Mills. This theory is kind of like QCD, and in some sense it has integrability for similar reasons to those that Feynman hoped for and Korchemsky and Faddeev found. But it actually goes much farther, outside of the high-energy approximation where Korchemsky and Faddeev’s result works, and in principle seems to include everything you might want to know about the theory. Nowadays, people are using it to investigate the toy model of quantum gravity, hoping to get insights about quantum gravity in general.

One thing I didn’t get a chance to mention at all is the connection to quantum computing. People are trying to build a quantum computer with carefully-cooled atoms. It’s important to test whether the quantum computer functions well enough, or if the quantum states aren’t as perfect as they need to be. One way people have been testing this is with the Bethe ansatz: because it lets you calculate the behavior of special systems perfectly, you can set up your quantum computer to model a Bethe ansatz, and then check how close to the prediction your results are. You know that the theoretical result is complete, so any failure has to be due to an imperfection in your experiment.

I gave a quick teaser to a very active field, one that has fascinated a lot of prominent physicists and been applied in a wide variety of areas. I hope I’ve inspired you to learn more!

Science Journalism Tasting Notes

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When you’ve done a lot of science communication you start to see patterns. You notice the choices people make when they write a public talk or a TV script, the different goals and practical constraints that shape a piece. I’ve likened it to watching an old kung fu movie and seeing where the wires are.

I don’t have a lot of experience doing science journalism, I can’t see the wires yet. But I’m starting to notice things, subtle elements like notes at a wine-tasting. Just like science communication by academics, science journalism is shaped by a variety of different goals.

First, there’s the need for news to be “new”. A classic news story is about something that happened recently, or even something that’s happening right now. Historical stories usually only show up as new “revelations”, something the journalist or a researcher recently dug up. This isn’t a strict requirement, and it seems looser in science journalism than in other types of journalism: sometimes you can have a piece on something cool the audience might not know, even if it’s not “new”. But it shapes how things are covered, it means that a piece on something old will often have something tying it back to a recent paper or an ongoing research topic.

Then, a news story should usually also be a “story”. Science communication can sometimes involve a grab-bag of different topics, like a TED talk that shows off a few different examples. Journalistic pieces often try to deliver one core message, with details that don’t fit the narrative needing to wait for another piece where they fit better. You might be tempted to round this off to saying that journalists are better writers than academics, since it’s easier for a reader to absorb one message than many. But I think it also ties to the structure. Journalists do have content with multiple messages, it just usually is not published as one story, but a thematic collection of stories.

Combining those two goals, there’s a tendency for news to focus on what happened. “First they had the idea, then there were challenges, then they made their discovery, now they look to the future.” You can’t just do that, though, because of another goal: pedagogy. Your audience doesn’t know everything you know. In order for them to understand what happened, there are often other things they have to understand. In non-science news, this can sometimes be brief, a paragraph that gives the background for people who have been “living under a rock”. In science news, there’s a lot more to explain. You have to teach something, and teaching well can demand a structure very different from the one-step-at a time narrative of what happened. Balancing these two is tricky, and it’s something I’m still learning how to do, as can be attested by the editors who’ve had to rearrange some of my pieces to make the story flow better.

News in general cares about being independent, about journalists who figure out the story and tell the truth regardless of what the people in power are saying. Science news is strange because, if a scientist gets covered at all, it’s almost always positive. Aside from the occasional scandal or replication crisis, science news tends to portray scientific developments as valuable, “good news” rather than “bad news”. If you’re a politician or a company, hearing from a journalist might make you worry. If you say the wrong thing, you might come off badly. If you’re a scientist, your biggest worry is that a journalist might twist your words into a falsehood that makes your work sound too good. On the other hand, a journalist who regularly publishes negative things about scientists would probably have a hard time finding scientists to talk to! There are basic journalistic ethics questions here that one probably learns about at journalism school and we who sneak in with no training have to learn another way.

These are the flavors I’ve tasted so far: novelty and narrative vs. education, positivity vs. accuracy. I’ll doubtless see more over the years, and go from someone who kind of knows what they’re doing to someone who can mentor others. With that in mind, I should get to writing!

Ways Freelance Journalism Is Different From Academic Writing

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A while back, I was surprised when I saw the writer of a well-researched webcomic assume that academics are paid for their articles. I ended up writing a post explaining how academic publishing actually works.

Now that I’m out of academia, I’m noticing some confusion on the other side. I’m doing freelance journalism, and the academics I talk to tend to have some common misunderstandings. So academics, this post is for you: a FAQ of questions I’ve been asked about freelance journalism. Freelance journalism is more varied than academia, and I’ve only been doing it a little while, so all of my answers will be limited to my experience.

Q: What happens first? Do they ask you to write something? Do you write an article and send it to them?

Academics are used to writing an article, then sending it to a journal, which sends it out to reviewers to decide whether to accept it. In freelance journalism in my experience, you almost never write an article before it’s accepted. (I can think of one exception I’ve run into, and that was for an opinion piece.)

Sometimes, an editor reaches out to a freelancer and asks them to take on an assignment to write a particular sort of article. This happens more freelancers that have been working with particular editors for a long time. I’m new to this, so the majority of the time I have to “pitch”. That means I email an editor describing the kind of piece I want to write. I give a short description of the topic and why it’s interesting. If the editor is interested, they’ll ask some follow-up questions, then tell me what they want me to focus on, how long the piece should be, and how much they’ll pay me. (The last two are related, many places pay by the word.) After that, I can write a draft.

Q: Wait, you’re paid by the word? Then why not make your articles super long, like Victor Hugo?

I’m paid per word assigned, not per word in the finished piece. The piece doesn’t have to strictly stick to the word limit, but it should be roughly the right size, and I work with the editor to try to get it there. In practice, places seem to have a few standard size ranges and internal terminology for what they are (“blog”, “essay”, “short news”, “feature”). These aren’t always the same as the categories readers see online. Some places have a web page listing these categories for prospective freelancers, but many don’t, so you have to either infer them from the lengths of articles online or learn them over time from the editors.

Q: Why didn’t you mention this important person or idea?

Because pieces pay more by the word, it’s easier as a freelancer to sell shorter pieces than longer ones. For science news, favoring shorter pieces also makes some pedagogical sense. People usually take away only a few key messages from a piece, if you try to pack in too much you run a serious risk of losing people. After I’ve submitted a draft, I work with the editor to polish it, and usually that means cutting off side-stories and “by-the-ways” to make the key points as vivid as possible.

Q: Do you do those cool illustrations?

Academia has a big focus on individual merit. The expectation is that when you write something, you do almost all of the work yourself, to the extent that more programming-heavy fields like physics and math do their own typesetting.

Industry, including journalism, is more comfortable delegating. Places will generally have someone on-staff to handle illustrations. I suggest diagrams that could be helpful to the piece and do a sketch of what they could look like, but it’s someone else’s job to turn that into nice readable graphic design.

Q: Why is the title like that? Why doesn’t that sound like you?

Editors in journalistic outlets are much more involved than in academic journals. Editors won’t just suggest edits, they’ll change wording directly and even input full sentences of their own. The title and subtitle of a piece in particular can change a lot (in part because they impact SEO), and in some places these can be changed by the editor quite late in the process. I’ve had a few pieces whose title changed after I’d signed off on them, or even after they first appeared.

Q: Are your pieces peer-reviewed?

The news doesn’t have peer review, no. Some places, like Quanta Magazine, do fact-checking. Quanta pays independent fact-checkers for longer pieces, while for shorter pieces it’s the writer’s job to verify key facts, confirming dates and the accuracy of quotes.

Q: Can you show me the piece before it’s published, so I can check it?

That’s almost never an option. Journalists tend to have strict rules about showing a piece before it’s published, related to more political areas where they want to preserve the ability to surprise wrongdoers and the independence to find their own opinions. Science news seems like it shouldn’t require this kind of thing as much, it’s not like we normally write hit pieces. But we’re not publicists either.

In a few cases, I’ve had people who were worried about something being conveyed incorrectly, or misleadingly. For those, I offer to do more in the fact-checking stage. I can sometimes show you quotes or paraphrase how I’m describing something, to check whether I’m getting something wrong. But under no circumstances can I show you the full text.

Q: What can I do to make it more likely I’ll get quoted?

Pieces are short, and written for a general, if educated, audience. Long quotes are harder to use because they eat into word count, and quotes with technical terms are harder to use because we try to limit the number of terms we ask the reader to remember. Quotes that mention a lot of concepts can be harder to find a place for, too: concepts are introduced gradually over the piece, so a quote that mentions almost everything that comes up will only make sense to the reader at the very end.

In a science news piece, quotes can serve a couple different roles. They can give authority, an expert’s judgement confirming that something is important or real. They can convey excitement, letting the reader see a scientist’s emotions. And sometimes, they can give an explanation. This last only happens when the explanation is very efficient and clear. If the journalist can give a better explanation, they’re likely to use that instead.

So if you want to be quoted, keep that in mind. Try to say things that are short and don’t use a lot of technical jargon or bring in too many concepts at once. Convey judgement, which things are important and why, and convey passion, what drives you and excited you about a topic. I am allowed to edit quotes down, so I can take a piece of a longer quote that’s cleaner or cut a long list of examples from an otherwise compelling statement. I can correct grammar and get rid of filler words and obvious mistakes. But I can’t put words in your mouth, I have to work with what you actually said, and if you don’t say anything I can use then you won’t get quoted.

Freelancing in [Country That Includes Greenland]

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(Why mention Greenland? It’s a movie reference.)

I figured I’d give an update on my personal life.

A year ago, I resigned from my position in France and moved back to Denmark. I had planned to spend a few months as a visiting researcher in my old haunts at the Niels Bohr Institute, courtesy of the spare funding of a generous friend. There turned out to be more funding than expected, and what was planned as just a few months was extended to almost a year.

I spent that year learning something new. It was still an amplitudes project, trying to make particle physics predictions more efficient. But this time I used Python. I looked into reinforcement learning and PyTorch, played with using a locally hosted Large Language Model to generate random code, and ended up getting good results from a classic genetic programming approach. Along the way I set up a SQL database, configured Docker containers, and puzzled out interactions with CUDA. I’ve got a paper in the works, I’ll post about it when it’s out.

All the while, on the side, I’ve been seeking out stories. I’ve not just been a writer, but a journalist, tracking down leads and interviewing experts. I had three pieces in Quanta Magazine and one in Ars Technica.

Based on that, I know I can make money doing science journalism. What I don’t know yet is whether I can make a living doing it. This year, I’ll figure that out. With the project at the Niels Bohr Institute over, I’ll have more time to seek out leads and pitch to more outlets. I’ll see whether I can turn a skill into a career.

So if you’re a scientist with a story to tell, if you’ve discovered something or accomplished something or just know something that the public doesn’t, and that you want to share: do reach out. There’s a lot that can be of interest, passion that can be shared.

At the same time, I don’t know yet whether I can make a living as a freelancer. Many people try and don’t succeed. So I’m keeping my CV polished and my eyes open. I have more experience now with Data Science tools, and I’ve got a few side projects cooking that should give me a bit more. I have a few directions in mind, but ultimately, I’m flexible. I like being part of a team, and with enthusiastic and competent colleagues I can get excited about pretty much anything. So if you’re hiring in Copenhagen, if you’re open to someone with ten years of STEM experience who’s just starting to see what industry has to offer, then let’s chat. Even if we’re not a good fit, I bet you’ve got a good story to tell.

At Ars Technica Last Week, With a Piece on How Wacky Ideas Become Big Experiments

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I had a piece last week at Ars Technica about the path ideas in physics take to become full-fledged experiments.

My original idea for the story was a light-hearted short news piece. A physicist at the University of Kansas, Steven Prohira, had just posted a proposal for wiring up a forest to detect high-energy neutrinos, using the trees like giant antennas.

Chatting to experts, what at first seemed silly started feeling like a hook for something more. Prohira has a strong track record, and the experts I talked to took his idea seriously. They had significant doubts, but I was struck by how answerable those doubts were, how rather than dismissing the whole enterprise they had in mind a list of questions one could actually test. I wrote a blog post laying out that impression here.

The editor at Ars was interested, so I dug deeper. Prohira’s story became a window on a wider-ranging question: how do experiments happen? How does a scientist convince the community to work on a project, and the government to fund it? How do ideas get tested before these giant experiments get built?

I tracked down researchers from existing experiments and got their stories. They told me how detecting particles from space takes ingenuity, with wacky ideas involving the natural world being surprisingly common. They walked me through tales of prototypes and jury-rigging and feasibility studies and approval processes.

The highlights of those tales ended up in the piece, but there was a lot I couldn’t include. In particular, I had a long chat with Sunil Gupta about the twists and turns taken by the GRAPES experiment in India. Luckily for you, some of the most interesting stories have already been covered, for example their measurement of the voltage of a thunderstorm or repurposing used building materials to keep costs down. I haven’t yet found his story about stirring wavelength-shifting chemicals all night using a propeller mounted on a power drill, but I suspect it’s out there somewhere. If not, maybe it can be the start of a new piece!

Replacing Space-Time With the Space in Your Eyes

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Nima Arkani-Hamed thinks space-time is doomed.

That doesn’t mean he thinks it’s about to be destroyed by a supervillain. Rather, Nima, like many physicists, thinks that space and time are just approximations to a deeper reality. In order to make sense of gravity in a quantum world, seemingly fundamental ideas, like that particles move through particular places at particular times, will probably need to become more flexible.

But while most people who think space-time is doomed research quantum gravity, Nima’s path is different. Nima has been studying scattering amplitudes, formulas used by particle physicists to predict how likely particles are to collide in particular ways. He has been trying to find ways to calculate these scattering amplitudes without referring directly to particles traveling through space and time. In the long run, the hope is that knowing how to do these calculations will help suggest new theories beyond particle physics, theories that can’t be described with space and time at all.

Ten years ago, Nima figured out how to do this in a particular theory, one that doesn’t describe the real world. For that theory he was able to find a new picture of how to calculate scattering amplitudes based on a combinatorical, geometric space with no reference to particles traveling through space-time. He gave this space the catchy name “the amplituhedron“. In the years since, he found a few other “hedra” describing different theories.

Now, he’s got a new approach. The new approach doesn’t have the same kind of catchy name: people sometimes call it surfaceology, or curve integral formalism. Like the amplituhedron, it involves concepts from combinatorics and geometry. It isn’t quite as “pure” as the amplituhedron: it uses a bit more from ordinary particle physics, and while it avoids specific paths in space-time it does care about the shape of those paths. Still, it has one big advantage: unlike the amplituhedron, Nima’s new approach looks like it can work for at least a few of the theories that actually describe the real world.

The amplituhedron was mysterious. Instead of space and time, it described the world in terms of a geometric space whose meaning was unclear. Nima’s new approach also describes the world in terms of a geometric space, but this space’s meaning is a lot more clear.

The space is called “kinematic space”. That probably still sounds mysterious. “Kinematic” in physics refers to motion. In the beginning of a physics class when you study velocity and acceleration before you’ve introduced a single force, you’re studying kinematics. In particle physics, kinematic refers to the motion of the particles you detect. If you see an electron going up and to the right at a tenth the speed of light, those are its kinematics.

Kinematic space, then, is the space of observations. By saying that his approach is based on ideas in kinematic space, what Nima is saying is that it describes colliding particles not based on what they might be doing before they’re detected, but on mathematics that asks questions only about facts about the particles that can be observed.

(For the experts: this isn’t quite true, because he still needs a concept of loop momenta. He’s getting the actual integrands from his approach, rather than the dual definition he got from the amplituhedron. But he does still have to integrate one way or another.)

Quantum mechanics famously has many interpretations. In my experience, Nima’s favorite interpretation is the one known as “shut up and calculate”. Instead of arguing about the nature of an indeterminately philosophical “real world”, Nima thinks quantum physics is a tool to calculate things people can observe in experiments, and that’s the part we should care about.

From a practical perspective, I agree with him. And I think if you have this perspective, then ultimately, kinematic space is where your theories have to live. Kinematic space is nothing more or less than the space of observations, the space defined by where things land in your detectors, or if you’re a human and not a collider, in your eyes. If you want to strip away all the speculation about the nature of reality, this is all that is left over. Any theory, of any reality, will have to be described in this way. So if you think reality might need a totally new weird theory, it makes sense to approach things like Nima does, and start with the one thing that will always remain: observations.

Why Quantum Gravity Is Controversial

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Merging quantum mechanics and gravity is a famously hard physics problem. Explaining why merging quantum mechanics and gravity is hard is, in turn, a very hard science communication problem. The more popular descriptions tend to lead to misunderstandings, and I’ve posted many times over the years to chip away at those misunderstandings.

Merging quantum mechanics and gravity is hard…but despite that, there are proposed solutions. String Theory is supposed to be a theory of quantum gravity. Loop Quantum Gravity is supposed to be a theory of quantum gravity. Asymptotic Safety is supposed to be a theory of quantum gravity.

One of the great virtues of science and math is that we are, eventually, supposed to agree. Philosophers and theologians might argue to the end of time, but in math we can write down a proof, and in science we can do an experiment. If we don’t yet have the proof or the experiment, then we should reserve judgement. Either way, there’s no reason to get into an unproductive argument.

Despite that, string theorists and loop quantum gravity theorists and asymptotic safety theorists, famously, like to argue! There have been bitter, vicious, public arguments about the merits of these different theories, and decades of research doesn’t seem to have resolved them. To an outside observer, this makes quantum gravity seem much more like philosophy or theology than like science or math.

Why is there still controversy in quantum gravity? We can’t do quantum gravity experiments, sure, but if that were the problem physicists could just write down the possibilities and leave it at that. Why argue?

Some of the arguments are for silly aesthetic reasons, or motivated by academic politics. Some are arguments about which approaches are likely to succeed in future, which as always is something we can’t actually reliably judge. But the more justified arguments, the strongest and most durable ones, are about a technical challenge. They’re about something called non-perturbative physics.

Most of the time, when physicists use a theory, they’re working with an approximation. Instead of the full theory, they’re making an assumption that makes the theory easier to use. For example, if you assume that the velocity of an object is small, you can use Newtonian physics instead of special relativity. Often, physicists can systematically relax these assumptions, including more and more of the behavior of the full theory and getting a better and better approximation to the truth. This process is called perturbation theory.

Other times, this doesn’t work well. The full theory has some trait that isn’t captured by the approximations, something that hides away from these systematic tools. The theory has some important aspect that is non-perturbative.

Every proposed quantum gravity theory uses approximations like this. The theory’s proponents try to avoid these approximations when they can, but often they have to approximate and hope they don’t miss too much. The opponents, in turn, argue that the theory’s proponents are missing something important, some non-perturbative fact that would doom the theory altogether.

Asymptotic Safety is built on top of an approximation, one different from what other quantum gravity theorists typically use. To its proponents, work using their approximation suggests that gravity works without any special modifications, that the theory of quantum gravity is easier to find than it seems. Its opponents aren’t convinced, and think that the approximation is missing something important which shows that gravity needs to be modified.

In Loop Quantum Gravity, the critics think their approximation misses space-time itself. Proponents of Loop Quantum Gravity have been unable to prove that their theory, if you take all the non-perturbative corrections into account, doesn’t just roll up all of space and time into a tiny spiky ball. They expect that their theory should allow for a smooth space-time like we experience, but the critics aren’t convinced, and without being able to calculate the non-perturbative physics neither side can convince the other.

String Theory was founded and originally motivated by perturbative approximations. Later, String Theorists figured out how to calculate some things non-perturbatively, often using other simplifications like supersymmetry. But core questions, like whether or not the theory allows a positive cosmological constant, seem to depend on non-perturbative calculations that the theory gives no instructions for how to do. Some critics don’t think there is a consistent non-perturbative theory at all, that the approximations String Theorists use don’t actually approximate to anything. Even within String Theory, there are worries that the theory might try to resist approximation in odd ways, becoming more complicated whenever a parameter is small enough that you could use it to approximate something.

All of this would be less of a problem with real-world evidence. Many fields of science are happy to use approximations that aren’t completely rigorous, as long as those approximations have a good track record in the real world. In general though, we don’t expect evidence relevant to quantum gravity any time soon. Maybe we’ll get lucky, and studies of cosmology will reveal something, or an experiment on Earth will have a particularly strange result. But nature has no obligation to help us out.

Without evidence, though, we can still make mathematical progress. You could imagine someone proving that the various perturbative approaches to String Theory become inconsistent when stitched together into a full non-perturbative theory. Alternatively, you could imagine someone proving that a theory like String Theory is unique, that no other theory can do some key thing that it does. Either of these seems unlikely to come any time soon, and most researchers in these fields aren’t pursuing questions like that. But the fact the debate could be resolved means that it isn’t just about philosophy or theology. There’s a real scientific, mathematical controversy, one rooted in our inability to understand these theories beyond the perturbative methods their proponents use. And while I don’t expect it to be resolved any time soon, one can always hold out hope for a surprise.

At Quanta This Week, With a Piece on Vacuum Decay

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I have a short piece at Quanta Magazine this week, about a physics-y end of the world as we know it called vacuum decay.

For science-minded folks who want to learn a bit more: I have a sentence in the article mentioning other uncertainties. In case you’re curious what those uncertainties are:

Gamma (\gamma) here is the decay rate, its inverse gives the time it takes for a cubic gigaparsec of space to experience vacuum decay. The three uncertainties are from experiments, the uncertainties of our current knowledge of the Higgs mass, top quark mass, and the strength of the strong force.

Occasionally, you see futurology-types mention “uncertainties in the exponent” to argue that some prediction (say, how long it will take till we have human-level AI) is so uncertain that estimates barely even make sense: it might be 10 years, or 1000 years. I find it fun that for vacuum decay, because of that \log_{10}, there is actually uncertainty in the exponent! Vacuum decay might happen in as few as 10^{411} years or as many as 10^{1333} years, and that’s the result of an actual, reasonable calculation!

For physicist readers, I should mention that I got a lot out of reading some slides from a 2016 talk by Matthew Schwartz. Not many details of the calculation made it into the piece, but the slides were helpful in dispelling a few misconceptions that could have gotten into the piece. There’s an instinct to think about the situation in terms of the energy, to think about how difficult it is for quantum uncertainty to get you over the energy barrier to the next vacuum. There are methods that sort of look like that, if you squint, but that’s not really how you do the calculation, and there end up being a lot of interesting subtleties in the actual story. There were also a few numbers that it was tempting to put on the plots in the article, but turn out to be gauge dependent!

Another thing I learned from those slides how far you can actually take the uncertainties mentioned above. The higher-energy Higgs vacuum is pretty dang high-energy, to the point where quantum gravity effects could potentially matter. And at that point, all bets are off. The calculation, with all those nice uncertainties, is a calculation within the framework of the Standard Model. All of the things we don’t yet know about high-energy physics, especially quantum gravity, could freely mess with this. The universe as we know it could still be long-lived, but it could be a lot shorter-lived as well. That in turns makes this calculation a lot more of a practice-ground to hone techniques, rather than an actual estimate you can rely on.

Clickbait or Koan

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Last month, I had a post about a type of theory that is, in a certain sense, “immune to gravity”. These theories don’t allow you to build antigravity machines, and they aren’t totally independent of the overall structure of space-time. But they do ignore the core thing most people think of as gravity, the curvature of space that sends planets around the Sun and apples to the ground. And while that trait isn’t something we can use for new technology, it has led to extremely productive conversations between mathematicians and physicists.

After posting, I had some interesting discussions on twitter. A few people felt that I was over-hyping things. Given all the technical caveats, does it really make sense to say that these theories defy gravity? Isn’t a title like “Gravity-Defying Theories” just clickbait?

Obviously, I don’t think so.

There’s a concept in education called inductive teaching. We remember facts better when they come in context, especially the context of us trying to solve a puzzle. If you try to figure something out, and then find an answer, you’re going to remember that answer better than if you were just told the answer from the beginning. There are some similarities here to the concept of a Zen koan: by asking questions like “what is the sound of one hand clapping?” a Zen master is supposed to get you to think about the world in a different way.

When I post with a counterintuitive title, I’m aiming for that kind of effect. I know that you’ll read the title and think “that can’t be right!” Then you’ll read the post, and hear the explanation. That explanation will stick with you better because you asked that question, because “how can that be right?” is the solution to a puzzle that, in that span of words, you cared about.

Clickbait is bad for two reasons. First, it sucks you in to reading things that aren’t actually interesting. I write my blog posts because I think they’re interesting, so I hope I avoid that. Second, it can spread misunderstandings. I try to be careful about these, and I have some tips how you can be too:

  1. Correct the misunderstanding early. If I’m worried a post might be misunderstood in a clickbaity way, I make sure that every time I post the link I include a sentence discouraging the misunderstanding. For example, for the post on Gravity-Defying Theories, before the link I wrote “No flying cars, but it is technically possible for something to be immune to gravity”. If I’m especially worried, I’ll also make sure that the first paragraph of the piece corrects the misunderstanding as well.
  2. Know your audience. This means both knowing the normal people who read your work, and how far something might go if it catches on. Your typical readers might be savvy enough to skip the misunderstanding, but if they latch on to the naive explanation immediately then the “koan” effect won’t happen. The wider your reach can be, the more careful you need to be about what you say. If you’re a well-regarded science news piece, don’t write a title saying that scientists have built a wormhole.
  3. Have enough of a conclusion to be “worth it”. This is obviously a bit subjective. If your post introduces a mystery and the answer is that you just made some poetic word choice, your audience is going to feel betrayed, like the puzzle they were considering didn’t have a puzzly answer after all. Whatever you’re teaching in your post, it needs to have enough “meat” that solving it feels like a real discovery, like the reader did some real work to solve it.

I don’t think I always live up to these, but I do try. And I think trying is better than the conservative option, of never having catchy titles that make counterintuitive claims. One of the most fun aspects of science is that sometimes a counterintuitive fact is actually true, and that’s an experience I want to share.