Tag Archives: mathematics

Jumpstarting Elliptic Bootstrapping

I was at a mini-conference this week, called Jumpstarting Elliptic Bootstrap Methods for Scattering Amplitudes.

I’ve done a lot of work with what we like to call “bootstrap” methods. Instead of doing a particle physics calculation in all its gory detail, we start with a plausible guess and impose requirements based on what we know. Eventually, we have the right answer pulled up “by its own bootstraps”: the only answer the calculation could have, without actually doing the calculation.

This method works very well, but so far it’s only been applied to certain kinds of calculations, involving mathematical functions called polylogarithms. More complicated calculations involve a mathematical object called an elliptic curve, and until very recently it wasn’t clear how to bootstrap them. To get people thinking about it, my colleagues Hjalte Frellesvig and Andrew McLeod asked the Carlsberg Foundation (yes, that Carlsberg) to fund a mini-conference. The idea was to get elliptic people and bootstrap people together (along with Hjalte’s tribe, intersection theory people) to hash things out. “Jumpstart people” are not a thing in physics, so despite the title they were not invited.

Anyone remember these games? Did you know that they still exist, have an educational MMO, and bought neopets?

Having the conference so soon after the yearly Elliptics meeting had some strange consequences. There was only one actual duplicate talk, but the first day of talks all felt like they would have been welcome additions to the earlier conference. Some might be functioning as “overflow”: Elliptics this year focused on discussion and so didn’t have many slots for talks, while this conference despite its discussion-focused goal had a more packed schedule. In other cases, people might have been persuaded by the more relaxed atmosphere and lack of recording or posted slides to give more speculative talks. Oliver Schlotterer’s talk was likely in this category, a discussion of the genus-two functions one step beyond elliptics that I think people at the previous conference would have found very exciting, but which involved work in progress that I could understand him being cautious about presenting.

The other days focused more on the bootstrap side, with progress on some surprising but not-quite-yet elliptic avenues. It was great to hear that Mark Spradlin is making new progress on his Ziggurat story, to hear James Drummond suggest a picture for cluster algebras that could generalize to other theories, and to get some idea of the mysterious ongoing story that animates my colleague Cristian Vergu.

There was one thing the organizers couldn’t have anticipated that ended up throwing the conference into a new light. The goal of the conference was to get people started bootstrapping elliptic functions, but in the meantime people have gotten started on their own. Roger Morales Espasa presented his work on this with several of my other colleagues. They can already reproduce a known result, the ten-particle elliptic double-box, and are well on-track to deriving something genuinely new, the twelve-particle version. It’s exciting, but it definitely makes the rest of us look around and take stock. Hopefully for the better!

Cabinet of Curiosities: The Nested Toy

I had a paper two weeks ago with a Master’s student, Alex Chaparro Pozo. I haven’t gotten a chance to talk about it yet, so I thought I should say a few words this week. It’s another entry in what I’ve been calling my cabinet of curiosities, interesting mathematical “objects” I’m sharing with the world.

I calculate scattering amplitudes, formulas that give the probability that particles scatter off each other in particular ways. While in principle I could do this with any particle physics theory, I have a favorite: a “toy model” called N=4 super Yang-Mills. N=4 super Yang-Mills doesn’t describe reality, but it lets us figure out cool new calculation tricks, and these often end up useful in reality as well.

Many scattering amplitudes in N=4 super Yang-Mills involve a type of mathematical functions called polylogarithms. These functions are especially easy to work with, but they aren’t the whole story. One we start considering more complicated situations (what if two particles collide, and eight particles come out?) we need more complicated functions, called elliptic polylogarithms.

A few years ago, some collaborators and I figured out how to calculate one of these elliptic scattering amplitudes. We didn’t do it as well as we’d like, though: the calculation was “half-done” in a sense. To do the other half, we needed new mathematical tools, tools that came out soon after. Once those tools were out, we started learning how to apply them, trying to “finish” the calculation we started.

The original calculation was pretty complicated. Two particles colliding, eight particles coming out, meant that in total we had to keep track of ten different particles. That gets messy fast. I’m pretty good at dealing with six particles, not ten. Luckily, it turned out there was a way to pretend there were six particles only: by “twisting” up the calculation, we found a toy model within the toy model: a six-particle version of the calculation. Much like the original was in a theory that doesn’t describe the real world, these six particles don’t describe six particles in that theory: they’re a kind of toy calculation within the toy model, doubly un-real.

Not quintuply-unreal though

With this nested toy model, I was confident we could do the calculation. I wasn’t confident I’d have time for it, though. This ended up making it perfect for a Master’s thesis, which is how Alex got into the game.

Alex worked his way through the calculation, programming and transforming, going from one type of mathematical functions to another (at least once because I’d forgotten to tell him the right functions to use, oops!) There were more details and subtleties than expected, but in the end everything worked out.

Then, we were scooped.

Another group figured out how to do the full, ten-particle problem, not just the toy model. That group was just “down the hall”…or would have been “down the hall” if we had been going to the office (this was 2021, after all). I didn’t hear about what they were working on until it was too late to change plans.

Alex left the field (not, as far as I know, because of this). And for a while, because of that especially thorough scooping, I didn’t publish.

What changed my mind, in part, was seeing the field develop in the meantime. It turns out toy models, and even nested toy models, are quite useful. We still have a lot of uncertainty about what to do, how to use the new calculation methods and what they imply. And usually, the best way to get through that kind of uncertainty is with simple, well-behaved toy models.

So I thought, in the end, that this might be useful. Even if it’s a toy version of something that already exists, I expect it to be an educational toy, one we can learn a lot from. So I’ve put it out into the world, as part of this year’s cabinet of curiosities.

At Elliptic Integrals in Fundamental Physics in Mainz

I’m at a conference this week. It’s named Elliptic Integrals in Fundamental Physics, but I think of it as “Elliptics 2022”, the latest in a series of conferences on elliptic integrals in particle physics.

It’s in Mainz, which you can tell from the Gutenberg street art

Elliptics has been growing in recent years, hurtling into prominence as a subfield of amplitudes (which is already a subfield of theoretical physics). This has led to growing lists of participants and a more and more packed schedule.

This year walked all of that back a bit. There were three talks a day: two one-hour talks by senior researchers and one half-hour talk by a junior researcher. The rest, as well as the whole last day, are geared to discussion. It’s an attempt to go back to the subfield’s roots. In the beginning, the Elliptics conferences drew together a small group to sort out a plan for the future, digging through the often-confusing mathematics to try to find a baseline for future progress. The field has advanced since then, but some of our questions are still almost as basic. What relations exist between different calculations? How much do we value fast numerics, versus analytical understanding? What methods do we want to preserve, and which aren’t serving us well? To answer these questions, it helps to get a few people together in one place, not to silently listen to lectures, but to question and discuss and hash things out. I may have heard a smaller range of topics at this year’s Elliptics, but due to the sheer depth we managed to probe on those fewer topics I feel like I’ve learned much more.

Since someone always asks, I should say that the talks were not recorded, but they are posting slides online, so if you’re interested in the topic you can watch there. A few people discussed new developments, some just published and some yet to be published. I discussed the work I talked about last week, and got a lot of good feedback and ideas about how to move forward.

Cabinet of Curiosities: The Coaction

I had two more papers out this week, continuing my cabinet of curiosities. I’ll talk about one of them today, and the other in (probably) two weeks.

This week, I’m talking about a paper I wrote with an excellent Master’s student, Andreas Forum. Andreas came to me looking for a project on the mathematical side. I had a rather nice idea for his project at first, to explain a proof in an old math paper so it could be used by physicists.

Unfortunately, the proof I sent him off to explain didn’t actually exist. Fortunately, by the time we figured this out Andreas had learned quite a bit of math, so he was ready for his next project: a coaction for Calabi-Yau Feynman diagrams.

We chose to focus on one particular diagram, called a sunrise diagram for its resemblance to a sun rising over the sea:

This diagram

Feynman diagrams depict paths traveled by particles. The paths are a metaphor, or organizing tool, for more complicated calculations: computations of the chances fundamental particles behave in different ways. Each diagram encodes a complicated integral. This one shows one particle splitting into many, then those many particles reuniting into one.

Do the integrals in Feynman diagrams, and you get a variety of different mathematical functions. Many of them integrate to functions called polylogarithms, and we’ve gotten really really good at working with them. We can integrate them up, simplify them, and sometimes we can guess them so well we don’t have to do the integrals at all! We can do all of that because we know how to break polylogarithm functions apart, with a mathematical operation called a coaction. The coaction chops polylogarithms up to simpler parts, parts that are easier to work with.

More complicated Feynman diagrams give more complicated functions, though. Some of them give what are called elliptic functions. You can think of these functions as involving a geometrical shape, in this case a torus.

Other functions involve more complicated geometrical shapes, in some cases very complicated. For example, some involve the Calabi-Yau manifolds studied by string theorists. These sunrise diagrams are some of the simplest to involve such complicated geometry.

Other researchers had proposed a coaction for elliptic functions back in 2018. When they derived it, though, they left a recipe for something more general. Follow the instructions in the paper, and you could in principle find a coaction for other diagrams, even the Calabi-Yau ones, if you set it up right.

I had an idea for how to set it up right, and in the grand tradition of supervisors everywhere I got Andreas to do the dirty work of applying it. Despite the delay of our false start and despite the fact that this was probably in retrospect too big a project for a normal Master’s thesis, Andreas made it work!

Our result, though, is a bit weird. The coaction is a powerful tool for polylogarithms because it chops them up finely: keep chopping, and you get down to very simple functions. Our coaction isn’t quite so fine: we don’t chop our functions into as many parts, and the parts are more mysterious, more difficult to handle.

We think these are temporary problems though. The recipe we applied turns out to be a recipe with a lot of choices to make, less like Julia Child and more like one of those books where you mix-and-match recipes. We believe the community can play with the parameters of this recipe, finding new version of the coaction for new uses.

This is one of the shiniest of the curiosities in my cabinet this year, I hope it gets put to good use.

Cabinet of Curiosities: The Cubic

Before I launch into the post: I got interviewed on Theoretically Podcasting, a new YouTube channel focused on beginning grad student-level explanations of topics in theoretical physics. If that sounds interesting to you, check it out!

This Fall is paper season for me. I’m finishing up a number of different projects, on a number of different things. Each one was its own puzzle: a curious object found, polished, and sent off into the world.

Monday I published the first of these curiosities, along with Jake Bourjaily and Cristian Vergu.

I’ve mentioned before that the calculations I do involve a kind of “alphabet“. Break down a formula for the probability that two particles collide, and you find pieces that occur again and again. In the nicest cases, those pieces are rational functions, but they can easily get more complicated. I’ve talked before about a case where square roots enter the game, for example. But if square roots appear, what about something even more complicated? What about cubic roots?

What about 1024th roots?

Occasionally, my co-authors and I would say something like that at the end of a talk and an older professor would scoff: “Cube roots? Impossible!”

You might imagine these professors were just being unreasonable skeptics, the elderly-but-distinguished scientists from that Arthur C. Clarke quote. But while they turned out to be wrong, they weren’t being unreasonable. They were thinking back to theorems from the 60’s, theorems which seemed to argue that these particle physics calculations could only have a few specific kinds of behavior: they could behave like rational functions, like logarithms, or like square roots. Theorems which, as they understood them, would have made our claims impossible.

Eventually, we decided to figure out what the heck was going on here. We grabbed the simplest example we could find (a cube root involving three loops and eleven gluons in N=4 super Yang-Mills…yeah) and buckled down to do the calculation.

When we want to calculate something specific to our field, we can reference textbooks and papers, and draw on our own experience. Much of the calculation was like that. A crucial piece, though, involved something quite a bit less specific: calculating a cubic root. And for things like that, you can tell your teachers we use only the very best: Wikipedia.

Check out the Wikipedia entry for the cubic formula. It’s complicated, in ways the quadratic formula isn’t. It involves complex numbers, for one. But it’s not that crazy.

What those theorems from the 60’s said (and what they actually said, not what people misremembered them as saying), was that you can’t take a single limit of a particle physics calculation, and have it behave like a cubic root. You need to take more limits, not just one, to see it.

It turns out, you can even see this just from the Wikipedia entry. There’s a big cube root sign in the middle there, equal to some variable “C”. Look at what’s inside that cube root. You want that part inside to vanish. That means two things need to cancel: Wikipedia labels them \Delta_1, and \sqrt{\Delta_1^2-4\Delta_0^3}. Do some algebra, and you’ll see that for those to cancel, you need \Delta_0=0.

So you look at the limit, \Delta_0\rightarrow 0. This time you need not just some algebra, but some calculus. I’ll let the students in the audience work it out, but at the end of the day, you should notice how C behaves when \Delta_0 is small. It isn’t like \sqrt[3]{\Delta_0}. It’s like just plain \Delta_0. The cube root goes away.

It can come back, but only if you take another limit: not just \Delta_0\rightarrow 0, but \Delta_1\rightarrow 0 as well. And that’s just fine according to those theorems from the 60’s. So our cubic curiosity isn’t impossible after all.

Our calculation wasn’t quite this simple, of course. We had to close a few loopholes, checking our example in detail using more than just Wikipedia-based methods. We found what we thought was a toy example, that turned out to be even more complicated, involving roots of a degree-six polynomial (one that has no “formula”!).

And in the end, polished and in their display case, we’ve put our examples up for the world to see. Let’s see what people think of them!

Why the Antipode Was Supposed to Be Useless

A few weeks back, Quanta Magazine had an article about a new discovery in my field, called antipodal duality.

Some background: I’m a theoretical physicist, and I work on finding better ways to make predictions in particle physics. Folks in my field make these predictions with formulas called “scattering amplitudes” that encode the probability that particles bounce, or scatter, in particular ways. One trick we’ve found is that these formulas can often be written as “words” in a kind of “alphabet”. If we know the alphabet, we can make our formulas much simpler, or even guess formulas we could never have calculated any other way.

Quanta’s article describes how a few friends of mine (Lance Dixon, Ömer Gürdoğan, Andrew McLeod, and Matthias Wilhelm) noticed a weird pattern in two of these formulas, from two different calculations. If you flip the “words” around, back to front (an operation called the antipode), you go from a formula describing one collision of particles to a formula for totally different particles. Somehow, the two calculations are “dual”: two different-seeming descriptions that secretly mean the same thing.

Quanta quoted me for their article, and I was (pleasantly) baffled. See, the antipode was supposed to be useless. The mathematicians told us it was something the math allows us to do, like you’re allowed to order pineapple on pizza. But just like pineapple on pizza, we couldn’t imagine a situation where we actually wanted to do it.

What Quanta didn’t say was why we thought the antipode was useless. That’s a hard story to tell, one that wouldn’t fit in a piece like that.

It fits here, though. So in the rest of this post, I’d like to explain why flipping around words is such a strange, seemingly useless thing to do. It’s strange because it swaps two things that in physics we thought should be independent: branch cuts and derivatives, or particles and symmetries.

Let’s start with the first things in each pair: branch cuts, and particles.

The first few letters of our “word” tell us something mathematical, and they tell us something physical. Mathematically, they tell us ways that our formula can change suddenly, and discontinuously.

Take a logarithm, the inverse of e^x. You’re probably used to plugging in positive numbers, and getting out something reasonable, that changes in a smooth and regular way: after all, e^x is always positive, right? But in mathematics, you don’t have to just use positive numbers. You can use negative numbers. Even more interestingly, you can use complex numbers. And if you take the logarithm of a complex number, and look at the imaginary part, it looks like this:

Mostly, this complex logarithm still seems to be doing what it’s supposed to, changing in a nice slow way. But there is a weird “cut” in the graph for negative numbers: a sudden jump, from \pi to -\pi. That jump is called a “branch cut”.

As physicists, we usually don’t like our formulas to make sudden changes. A change like this is an infinitely fast jump, and we don’t like infinities much either. But we do have one good use for a formula like this, because sometimes our formulas do change suddenly: when we have enough energy to make a new particle.

Imagine colliding two protons together, like at the LHC. Colliding particles doesn’t just break the protons into pieces: due to Einstein’s famous E=mc^2, it can create new particles as well. But to create a new particle, you need enough energy: mc^2 worth of energy. So as you dial up the energy of your protons, you’ll notice a sudden change: you couldn’t create, say, a Higgs boson, and now you can. Our formulas represent some of those kinds of sudden changes with branch cuts.

So the beginning of our “words” represent branch cuts, and particles. The end represents derivatives and symmetries.

Derivatives come from the land of calculus, a place spooky to those with traumatic math class memories. Derivatives shouldn’t be so spooky though. They’re just ways we measure change. If we have a formula that is smoothly changing as we change some input, we can describe that change with a derivative.

The ending of our “words” tell us what happens when we take a derivative. They tell us which ways our formulas can smoothly change, and what happens when they do.

In doing so, they tell us about something some physicists make sound spooky, called symmetries. Symmetries are changes we can make that don’t really change what’s important. For example, you could imagine lifting up the entire Large Hadron Collider and (carefully!) carrying it across the ocean, from France to the US. We’d expect that, once all the scared scientists return and turn it back on, it would start getting exactly the same results. Physics has “translation symmetry”: you can move, or “translate” an experiment, and the important stuff stays the same.

These symmetries are closely connected to derivatives. If changing something doesn’t change anything important, that should be reflected in our formulas: they shouldn’t change either, so their derivatives should be zero. If instead the symmetry isn’t quite true, if it’s what we call “broken”, then by knowing how it was “broken” we know what the derivative should be.

So branch cuts tell us about particles, derivatives tell us about symmetries. The weird thing about the antipode, the un-physical bizarre thing, is that it swaps them. It makes the particles of one calculation determine the symmetries of another.

(And lest you’ve heard about particles with symmetries, like gluons and SU(3)…this is a different kind of thing. I don’t have enough room to explain why here, but it’s completely unrelated.)

Why the heck does this duality exist?

A commenter on the last post asked me to speculate. I said there that I have no clue, and that’s most of the answer.

If I had to speculate, though, my answer might be disappointing.

Most of the things in physics we call “dualities” have fairly deep physical meanings, linked to twisting spacetime in complicated ways. AdS/CFT isn’t fully explained, but it seems to be related to something called the holographic principle, the idea that gravity ties together the inside of space with the boundary around it. T duality, an older concept in string theory, is explained: a consequence of how strings “see” the world in terms of things to wrap around and things to spin around. In my field, one of our favorite dualities links back to this as well, amplitude-Wilson loop duality linked to fermionic T-duality.

The antipode doesn’t twist spacetime, it twists the mathematics. And it may be it matters only because the mathematics is so constrained that it’s forced to happen.

The trick that Lance Dixon and co. used to discover antipodal duality is the same trick I used with Lance to calculate complicated scattering amplitudes. It relies on taking a general guess of words in the right “alphabet”, and constraining it: using mathematical and physical principles it must obey and throwing out every illegal answer until there’s only one answer left.

Currently, there are some hints that the principles used for the different calculations linked by antipodal duality are “antipodal mirrors” of each other: that different principles have the same implication when the duality “flips” them around. If so, then it could be this duality is in some sense just a coincidence: not a coincidence limited to a few calculations, but a coincidence limited to a few principles. Thought of in this way, it might not tell us a lot about other situations, it might not really be “deep”.

Of course, I could be wrong about this. It could be much more general, could mean much more. But in that context, I really have no clue what to speculate. The antipode is weird: it links things that really should not be physically linked. We’ll have to see what that actually means.

Amplitudes 2022 Retrospective

I’m back from Amplitudes 2022 with more time to write, and (besides the several papers I’m working on) that means writing about the conference! Casual readers be warned, there’s no way around this being a technical post, I don’t have the space to explain everything!

I mostly said all I wanted about the way the conference was set up in last week’s post, but one thing I didn’t say much about was the conference dinner. Most conference dinners are the same aside from the occasional cool location or haggis speech. This one did have a cool location, and a cool performance by a blind pianist, but the thing I really wanted to comment on was the setup. Typically, the conference dinner at Amplitudes is a sit-down affair: people sit at tables in one big room, maybe getting up occasionally to pick up food, and eventually someone gives an after-dinner speech. This time the tables were standing tables, spread across several rooms. This was a bit tiring on a hot day, but it did have the advantage that it naturally mixed people around. Rather than mostly talking to “your table”, you’d wander, ending up at a new table every time you picked up new food or drinks. It was a good way to meet new people, a surprising number of which in my case apparently read this blog. It did make it harder to do an after-dinner speech, so instead Lance gave an after-conference speech, complete with the now-well-established running joke where Greta Thunberg tries to get us to fly less.

(In another semi-running joke, the organizers tried to figure out who had attended the most of the yearly Amplitudes conferences over the years. Weirdly, no-one has attended all twelve.)

In terms of the content, and things that stood out:

Nima is getting close to publishing his newest ‘hedron, the surfacehedron, and correspondingly was able to give a lot more technical detail about it. (For his first and most famous amplituhedron, see here.) He still didn’t have enough time to explain why he has to use category theory to do it, but at least he was concrete enough that it was reasonably clear where the category theory was showing up. (I wasn’t there for his eight-hour lecture at the school the week before, maybe the students who stuck around until 2am learned some category theory there.) Just from listening in on side discussions, I got the impression that some of the ideas here actually may have near-term applications to computing Feynman diagrams: this hasn’t been a feature of previous ‘hedra and it’s an encouraging development.

Alex Edison talked about progress towards this blog’s namesake problem, the question of whether N=8 supergravity diverges at seven loops. Currently they’re working at six loops on the N=4 super Yang-Mills side, not yet in a form it can be “double-copied” to supergravity. The tools they’re using are increasingly sophisticated, including various slick tricks from algebraic geometry. They are looking to the future: if they’re hoping their methods will reach seven loops, the same methods have to make six loops a breeze.

Xi Yin approached a puzzle with methods from String Field Theory, prompting the heretical-for-us title “on-shell bad, off-shell good”. A colleague reminded me of a local tradition for dealing with heretics.

While Nima was talking about a new ‘hedron, other talks focused on the original amplituhedron. Paul Heslop found that the amplituhedron is not literally a positive geometry, despite slogans to the contrary, but what it is is nonetheless an interesting generalization of the concept. Livia Ferro has made more progress on her group’s momentum amplituhedron: previously only valid at tree level, they now have a picture that can accomodate loops. I wasn’t sure this would be possible, there are a lot of things that work at tree level and not for loops, so I’m quite encouraged that this one made the leap successfully.

Sebastian Mizera, Andrew McLeod, and Hofie Hannesdottir all had talks that could be roughly summarized as “deep principles made surprisingly useful”. Each took topics that were explored in the 60’s and translated them into concrete techniques that could be applied to modern problems. There were surprisingly few talks on the completely concrete end, on direct applications to collider physics. I think Simone Zoia’s was the only one to actually feature collider data with error bars, which might explain why I singled him out to ask about those error bars later.

Likewise, Matthias Wilhelm’s talk was the only one on functions beyond polylogarithms, the elliptic functions I’ve also worked on recently. I wonder if the under-representation of some of these topics is due to the existence of independent conferences: in a year when in-person conferences are packed in after being postponed across the pandemic, when there are already dedicated conferences for elliptics and practical collider calculations, maybe people are just a bit too tired to go to Amplitudes as well.

Talks on gravitational waves seem to have stabilized at roughly a day’s worth, which seems reasonable. While the subfield’s capabilities continue to be impressive, it’s also interesting how often new conceptual challenges appear. It seems like every time a challenge to their results or methods is resolved, a new one shows up. I don’t know whether the field will ever get to a stage of “business as usual”, or whether it will be novel qualitative questions “all the way up”.

I haven’t said much about the variety of talks bounding EFTs and investigating their structure, though this continues to be an important topic. And I haven’t mentioned Lance Dixon’s talk on antipodal duality, largely because I’m planning a post on it later: Quanta Magazine had a good article on it, but there are some aspects even Quanta struggled to cover, and I think I might have a good way to do it.

Shape the Science to the Statistics, Not the Statistics to the Science

In theatre, and more generally in writing, the advice is always to “show, don’t tell”. You could just tell your audience that Long John Silver is a ruthless pirate, but it works a lot better to show him marching a prisoner off the plank. Rather than just informing with words, you want to make things as concrete as possible, with actions.

There is a similar rule in pedagogy. Pedagogy courses teach you to be explicit about your goals, planning a course by writing down Intended Learning Outcomes. (They never seem amused when I ask about the Unintended Learning Outcomes.) At first, you’d want to write down outcomes like “students will understand calculus” or “students will know what a sine is”. These, however, are hard to judge, and thus hard to plan around. Instead, the advice is to write outcomes that correspond to actions you want the students to take, things you want them to be capable of doing: “students can perform integration by parts” “students can decide correctly whether to use a sine or cosine”. Again and again, the best way to get the students to know something is to get them to do something.

Jay Daigle recently finished a series of blog posts on how scientists use statistics to test hypotheses. I recommend it, it’s a great introduction to the concepts scientists use to reason about data, as well as a discussion of how they often misuse those concepts and what they can do better. I have a bit of a different perspective on one of the “takeaways” of the post, and I wanted to highlight that here.

The center of Daigle’s point is a tool, widely used in science, called Neyman-Pearson Hypothesis Testing. Neyman-Pearson is a tool for making decisions involving a threshold for significance: a number that scientists often call a p-value. If you follow the procedure, only acting when you find a p-value below 0.05, then you will only be wrong 5% of the time: specifically, that will be your rate of false positives, the percent of the time you conclude some action works when it really doesn’t.

A core problem, from Daigle’s perspective, is that scientists use Neyman-Pearson for the wrong purpose. Neyman-Pearson is a tool for making decisions, not a test that tells you whether or not a specific claim is true. It tells you “on average, if I approve drugs when their p-value is below 0.05, only 5% of them will fail”. That’s great if you can estimate how bad it is to deny a drug that should be approved, how bad it is to approve a drug that should be denied, and calculate out on average how often you can afford to be wrong. It doesn’t tell you anything about the specific drug, though. It doesn’t tell you “every drug with a p-value below 0.05 works”. It certainly doesn’t tell you “a drug with a p-value of 0.051 almost works” or “a drug with a p-value of 0.001 definitely works”. It just doesn’t give you that information.

In later posts, Daigle suggests better tools, which he argues map better to what scientists want to do, as well as general ways scientists can do better. Section 4. in particular focuses on the idea that one thing scientists need to do is ask better questions. He uses a specific example from cognitive psychology, a study that tests whether describing someone’s face makes you worse at recognizing it later. That’s a clear scientific question, one that can be tested statistically. That doesn’t mean it’s a good question, though. Daigle points out that questions like this have a problem: it isn’t clear what the result actually tells us.

Here’s another example of the same problem. In grad school, I knew a lot of social psychologists. One was researching a phenomenon called extended contact. Extended contact is meant to be a foil to another phenomenon called direct contact, both having to do with our views of other groups. In direct contact, making a friend from another group makes you view that whole group better. In extended contact, making a friend who has a friend from another group makes you view the other group better.

The social psychologist was looking into a concrete-sounding question: which of these phenomena, direct or extended contact, is stronger?

At first, that seems like it has the same problem as Daigle’s example. Suppose one of these effects is larger: what does that mean? Why do we care?

Well, one answer is that these aren’t just phenomena: they’re interventions. If you know one phenomenon is stronger than another, you can use that to persuade people to be more accepting of other groups. The psychologist’s advisor even had a procedure to make people feel like they made a new friend. Armed with that, it’s definitely useful to know whether extended contact or direct contact is better: whichever one is stronger is the one you want to use!

You do need some “theory” behind this, of course. You need to believe that, if a phenomenon is stronger in your psychology lab, it will be stronger wherever you try to apply it in the real world. It probably won’t be stronger every single time, so you need some notion of how much stronger it needs to be. That in turn means you need to estimate costs: what it costs if you pick the weaker one instead, how much money you’re wasting or harm you’re doing.

You’ll notice this is sounding a lot like the requirements I described earlier, for Neyman-Pearson. That’s not accident: as you try to make your science more and more clearly defined, it will get closer and closer to a procedure to make a decision, and that’s exactly what Neyman-Pearson is good for.

So in the end I’m quite a bit more supportive of Neyman-Pearson than Daigle is. That doesn’t mean it isn’t being used wrong: most scientists are using it wrong. Instead of calculating a p-value each time they make a decision, they do it at the end of a paper, misinterpreting it as evidence that one thing or another is “true”. But I think that what these scientists need to do is not chance their statistics, but change their science. If they focused their science on making concrete decisions, they would actually be justified in using Neyman-Pearson…and their science would get a lot better in the process.

Einstein-Years

Scott Aaronson recently published an interesting exchange on his blog Shtetl Optimized, between him and cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker. The conversation was about AI: Aaronson is optimistic (though not insanely so) Pinker is pessimistic (again, not insanely though). While fun reading, the whole thing would normally be a bit too off-topic for this blog, except that Aaronson’s argument ended up invoking something I do know a bit about: how we make progress in theoretical physics.

Aaronson was trying to respond to an argument of Pinker’s, that super-intelligence is too vague and broad to be something we could expect an AI to have. Aaronson asks us to imagine an AI that is nothing more or less than a simulation of Einstein’s brain. Such a thing isn’t possible today, and might not even be efficient, but it has the advantage of being something concrete we can all imagine. Aarsonson then suggests imagining that AI sped up a thousandfold, so that in one year it covers a thousand years of Einstein’s thought. Such an AI couldn’t solve every problem, of course. But in theoretical physics, surely such an AI could be safely described as super-intelligent: an amazing power that would change the shape of physics as we know it.

I’m not as sure of this as Aaronson is. We don’t have a machine that generates a thousand Einstein-years to test, but we do have one piece of evidence: the 76 Einstein-years the man actually lived.

Einstein is rightly famous as a genius in theoretical physics. His annus mirabilis resulted in five papers that revolutionized the field, and the next decade saw his theory of general relativity transform our understanding of space and time. Later, he explored what general relativity was capable of and framed challenges that deepened our understanding of quantum mechanics.

After that, though…not so much. For Einstein-decades, he tried to work towards a new unified theory of physics, and as far as I’m aware made no useful progress at all. I’ve never seen someone cite work from that period of Einstein’s life.

Aarsonson mentions simulating Einstein “at his peak”, and it would be tempting to assume that the unified theory came “after his peak”, when age had weakened his mind. But while that kind of thing can sometimes be an issue for older scientists, I think it’s overstated. I don’t think careers peak early because of “youthful brains”, and with the exception of genuine dementia I don’t think older physicists are that much worse-off cognitively than younger ones. The reason so many prominent older physicists go down unproductive rabbit-holes isn’t because they’re old. It’s because genius isn’t universal.

Einstein made the progress he did because he was the right person to make that progress. He had the right background, the right temperament, and the right interests to take others’ mathematics and take them seriously as physics. As he aged, he built on what he found, and that background in turn enabled him to do more great things. But eventually, the path he walked down simply wasn’t useful anymore. His story ended, driven to a theory that simply wasn’t going to work, because given his experience up to that point that was the work that interested him most.

I think genius in physics is in general like that. It can feel very broad because a good genius picks up new tricks along the way, and grows their capabilities. But throughout, you can see the links: the tools mastered at one age that turn out to be just right for a new pattern. For the greatest geniuses in my field, you can see the “signatures” in their work, hints at why they were just the right genius for one problem or another. Give one a thousand years, and I suspect the well would eventually run dry: the state of knowledge would no longer be suitable for even their breadth.

…of course, none of that really matters for Aaronson’s point.

A century of Einstein-years wouldn’t have found the Standard Model or String Theory, but a century of physicist-years absolutely did. If instead of a simulation of Einstein, your AI was a simulation of a population of scientists, generating new geniuses as the years go by, then the argument works again. Sure, such an AI would be much more expensive, much more difficult to build, but the first one might have been as well. The point of the argument is simply to show such a thing is possible.

The core of Aaronson’s point rests on two key traits of technology. Technology is replicable: once we know how to build something, we can build more of it. Technology is scalable: if we know how to build something, we can try to build a bigger one with more resources. Evolution can tap into both of these, but not reliably: just because it’s possible to build a mind a thousand times better at some task doesn’t mean it will.

That is why the possibility of AI leads to the possibility of super-intelligence. If we can make a computer that can do something, we can make it do that something faster. That something doesn’t have to be “general”, you can have programs that excel at one task or another. For each such task, with more resources you can scale things up: so anything a machine can do now, a later machine can probably do better. Your starting-point doesn’t necessarily even have to be efficient, or a good algorithm: bad algorithms will take longer to scale, but could eventually get there too.

The only question at that point is “how fast?” I don’t have the impression that’s settled. The achievements that got Pinker and Aarsonson talking, GPT-3 and DALL-E and so forth, impressed people by their speed, by how soon they got to capabilities we didn’t expect them to have. That doesn’t mean that something we might really call super-intelligence is close: that has to do with the details, with what your target is and how fast you can actually scale. And it certainly doesn’t mean that another approach might not be faster! (As a total outsider, I can’t help but wonder if current ML is in some sense trying to fit a cubic with straight lines.)

It does mean, though, that super-intelligence isn’t inconceivable, or incoherent. It’s just the recognition that technology is a master of brute force, and brute force eventually triumphs. If you want to think about what happens in that “eventually”, that’s a very important thing to keep in mind.

The Most Anthropic of All Possible Worlds

Today, we’d call Leibniz a mathematician, a physicist, and a philosopher. As a mathematician, Leibniz turned calculus into something his contemporaries could actually use. As a physicist, he championed a doomed theory of gravity. In philosophy, he seems to be most remembered for extremely cheaty arguments.

Free will and determinism? Can’t it just be a coincidence?

I don’t blame him for this. Faced with a tricky philosophical problem, it’s enormously tempting to just blaze through with an answer that makes every subtlety irrelevant. It’s a temptation I’ve succumbed to time and time again. Faced with a genie, I would always wish for more wishes. On my high school debate team, I once forced everyone at a tournament to switch sides with some sneaky definitions. It’s all good fun, but people usually end up pretty annoyed with you afterwards.

People were annoyed with Leibniz too, especially with his solution to the problem of evil. If you believe in a benevolent, all-powerful god, as Leibniz did, why is the world full of suffering and misery? Leibniz’s answer was that even an all-powerful god is constrained by logic, so if the world contains evil, it must be logically impossible to make the world any better: indeed, we live in the best of all possible worlds. Voltaire famously made fun of this argument in Candide, dragging a Leibniz-esque Professor Pangloss through some of the most creative miseries the eighteenth century had to offer. It’s possibly the most famous satire of a philosopher, easily beating out Aristophanes’ The Clouds (which is also great).

Physicists can also get accused of cheaty arguments, and probably the most mocked is the idea of a multiverse. While it hasn’t had its own Candide, the multiverse has been criticized by everyone from bloggers to Nobel prizewinners. Leibniz wanted to explain the existence of evil, physicists want to explain “unnaturalness”: the fact that the kinds of theories we use to explain the world can’t seem to explain the mass of the Higgs boson. To explain it, these physicists suggest that there are really many different universes, separated widely in space or built in to the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Each universe has a different Higgs mass, and ours just happens to be the one we can live in. This kind of argument is called “anthropic” reasoning. Rather than the best of all possible worlds, it says we live in the world best-suited to life like ours.

I called Leibniz’s argument “cheaty”, and you might presume I think the same of the multiverse. But “cheaty” doesn’t mean “wrong”. It all depends what you’re trying to do.

Leibniz’s argument and the multiverse both work by dodging a problem. For Leibniz, the problem of evil becomes pointless: any evil might be necessary to secure a greater good. With a multiverse, naturalness becomes pointless: with many different laws of physics in different places, the existence of one like ours needs no explanation.

In both cases, though, the dodge isn’t perfect. To really explain any given evil, Leibniz would have to show why it is secretly necessary in the face of a greater good (and Pangloss spends Candide trying to do exactly that). To explain any given law of physics, the multiverse needs to use anthropic reasoning: it needs to show that that law needs to be the way it is to support human-like life.

This sounds like a strict requirement, but in both cases it’s not actually so useful. Leibniz could (and Pangloss does) come up with an explanation for pretty much anything. The problem is that no-one actually knows which aspects of the universe are essential and which aren’t. Without a reliable way to describe the best of all possible worlds, we can’t actually test whether our world is one.

The same problem holds for anthropic reasoning. We don’t actually know what conditions are required to give rise to people like us. “People like us” is very vague, and dramatically different universes might still contain something that can perceive and observe. While it might seem that there are clear requirements, so far there hasn’t been enough for people to do very much with this type of reasoning.

However, for both Leibniz and most of the physicists who believe anthropic arguments, none of this really matters. That’s because the “best of all possible worlds” and “most anthropic of all possible worlds” aren’t really meant to be predictive theories. They’re meant to say that, once you are convinced of certain things, certain problems don’t matter anymore.

Leibniz, in particular, wasn’t trying to argue for the existence of his god. He began the argument convinced that a particular sort of god existed: one that was all-powerful and benevolent, and set in motion a deterministic universe bound by logic. His argument is meant to show that, if you believe in such a god, then the problem of evil can be ignored: no matter how bad the universe seems, it may still be the best possible world.

Similarly, the physicists convinced of the multiverse aren’t really getting there through naturalness. Rather, they’ve become convinced of a few key claims: that the universe is rapidly expanding, leading to a proliferating multiverse, and that the laws of physics in such a multiverse can vary from place to place, due to the huge landscape of possible laws of physics in string theory. If you already believe those things, then the naturalness problem can be ignored: we live in some randomly chosen part of the landscape hospitable to life, which can be anywhere it needs to be.

So despite their cheaty feel, both arguments are fine…provided you agree with their assumptions. Personally, I don’t agree with Leibniz. For the multiverse, I’m less sure. I’m not confident the universe expands fast enough to create a multiverse, I’m not even confident it’s speeding up its expansion now. I know there’s a lot of controversy about the math behind the string theory landscape, about whether the vast set of possible laws of physics are as consistent as they’re supposed to be…and of course, as anyone must admit, we don’t know whether string theory itself is true! I don’t think it’s impossible that the right argument comes around and convinces me of one or both claims, though. These kinds of arguments, “if assumptions, then conclusion” are the kind of thing that seems useless for a while…until someone convinces you of the conclusion, and they matter once again.

So in the end, despite the similarity, I’m not sure the multiverse deserves its own Candide. I’m not even sure Leibniz deserved Candide. But hopefully by understanding one, you can understand the other just a bit better.