Tag Archives: cosmology

Bonus Info For “Cosmic Paradox Reveals the Awful Consequence of an Observer-Free Universe”

I had a piece in Quanta Magazine recently, about a tricky paradox that’s puzzling quantum gravity researchers and some early hints at its resolution.

The paradox comes from trying to describe “closed universes”, which are universes where it is impossible to reach the edge, even if you had infinite time to do it. This could be because the universe wraps around like a globe, or because the universe is expanding so fast no traveler could ever reach an edge. Recently, theoretical physicists have been trying to describe these closed universes, and have noticed a weird issue: each such universe appears to have only one possible quantum state. In general, quantum systems have more possible states the more complex they are, so for a whole universe to have only one possible state is a very strange thing, implying a bizarrely simple universe. Most worryingly, our universe may well be closed. Does that mean that secretly, the real world has only one possible state?

There is a possible solution that a few groups are playing around with. The argument that a closed universe has only one state depends on the fact that nothing inside a closed universe can reach the edge. But if nothing can reach the edge, then trying to observe the universe as a whole from outside would tell you nothing of use. Instead, any reasonable measurement would have to come from inside the universe. Such a measurement introduces a new kind of “edge of the universe”, this time not in the far distance, but close by: the edge between an observer and the rest of the world. And when you add that edge to the calculations, the universe stops being closed, and has all the many states it ought to.

This was an unusually tricky story for me to understand. I narrowly avoided several misconceptions, and I’m still not sure I managed to dodge all of them. Likewise, it was unusually tricky for the editors to understand, and I suspect it was especially tricky for Quanta’s social media team to understand.

It was also, quite clearly, tricky for the readers to understand. So I thought I would use this post to clear up a few misconceptions. I’ll say a bit more about what I learned investigating this piece, and try to clarify what the result does and does not mean.

Q: I’m confused about the math terms you’re using. Doesn’t a closed set contain its boundary?

A: Annoyingly, what physicists mean by a closed universe is a bit different from what mathematicians mean by a closed manifold, which is in turn more restrictive than what mathematicians mean by a closed set. One way to think about this that helped me is that in an open set you can take a limit that takes you out of the set, which is like being able to describe a (possibly infinite) path that takes you “out of the universe”. A closed set doesn’t have that, every path, no matter how long, still ends up in the same universe.

Q: So a bunch of string theorists did a calculation and got a result that doesn’t make sense, a one-state universe. What if they’re just wrong?

A: Two things:

First, the people I talked to emphasized that it’s pretty hard to wiggle out of the conclusion. It’s not just a matter of saying you don’t believe in string theory and that’s that. The argument is based in pretty fundamental principles, and it’s not easy to propose a way out that doesn’t mess up something even more important.

That’s not to say it’s impossible. One of the people I interviewed, Henry Maxfield, thinks that some of the recent arguments are misunderstanding how to use one of their core techniques, in a way that accidentally presupposes the one-state universe.

But even he thinks that the bigger point, that closed universes have only one state, is probably true.

And that’s largely due to a second reason: there are older arguments that back the conclusion up.

One of the oldest dates back to John Wheeler, a physicist famous for both deep musings about the nature of space and time and coining evocative terms like “wormhole”. In the 1960’s, Wheeler argued that, in a theory where space and time can be curved, one should think of a system’s state as including every configuration it can evolve into over time, since it can be tricky to specify a moment “right now”. In a closed universe, you could expect a quantum system to explore every possible configuration…meaning that such a universe should be described by only one state.

Later, physicists studying holography ran into a similar conclusion. They kept noticing systems in quantum gravity where you can describe everything that happens inside by what happens on the edges. If there are no edges, that seems to suggest that in some sense there is nothing inside. Apparently, Lenny Susskind had a slide at the end of talks in the 90’s where he kept bringing up this point.

So even if the modern arguments are wrong, and even if string theory is wrong…it still looks like the overall conclusion is right.

Q: If a closed universe has only one state, does that make it deterministic, and thus classical?

A: Oh boy…

So, on the one hand, there is an idea, which I think also goes back to Wheeler, that asks: “if the universe as a whole has a wavefunction, how does it collapse?” One possibility is that the universe has only one state, so that nobody is needed to collapse the wavefunction, it already is in a definite state.

On the other hand, a universe with only one state does not actually look much like a classical universe. Our universe looks classical largely due to a process called decoherence, where small quantum systems interact with big quantum systems with many states, diluting quantum effects until the world looks classical. If there is only one state, there are no big systems to interact with, and the world has large quantum fluctuations that make it look very different from a classical universe.

Q: How, exactly, are you defining “observer”?

A: A few commenters helpfully chimed in to talk about how physics models observers as “witness” systems, objects that preserve some record of what happens to them. A simple example is a ball sitting next to a bowl: if you find the ball in the bowl later, it means something moved it. This process, preserving what happens and making it more obvious, is in essence how physicists think about observers.

However, this isn’t the whole story in this case. Here, different research groups introducing observers are doing it in different ways. That’s, in part, why none of them are confident they have the right answer.

One of the approaches describes an observer in terms of its path through space and time, its worldline. Instead of a detailed witness system with specific properties, all they do is pick out a line and say “the observer is there”. Identifying that line, and declaring it different from its surroundings, seems to be enough to recover the complexity the universe ought to have.

The other approach treats the witness system in a bit more detail. We usually treat an observer in quantum mechanics as infinitely large compared to the quantum systems they measure. This approach instead gives the observer a finite size, and uses that to estimate how far their experience will be from classical physics.

Crucially, both approaches aren’t a matter of defining a physical object, and looking for it in the theory. Given a collection of atoms, neither team can tell you what is an observer, and what isn’t. Instead, in each approach, the observer is arbitrary: a choice, made by us when we use quantum mechanics, of what to count as an observer and what to count as the rest of the world. That choice can be made in many different ways, and each approach tries to describe what happens when you change that choice.

This is part of what makes this approach uncomfortable to some more philosophically-minded physicists: it treats observers not as a predictable part of the physical world, but as a mathematical description used to make statements about the world.

Q: If these ideas come from AdS/CFT, which is an open universe, how do you use them to describe a closed universe?

A: While more examples emerged later, initially theorists were thinking about two types of closed universes:

First, think about a black hole. You may have heard that when you fall into a black hole, you watch the whole universe age away before your eyes, due to the dramatic differences in the passage of time caused by the extreme gravity. Once you’ve seen the outside universe fade away, you are essentially in a closed universe of your own. The outside world will never affect you again, and you are isolated, with no path to the outside. These black hole interiors are one of the examples theorists looked at.

The other example are so-called “baby universes”. When physicists use quantum mechanics to calculate the chance of something happening, they have to add up every possible series of events that could have happened in between. For quantum gravity, this includes every possible arrangement of space and time. This includes arrangements with different shapes, including ones with tiny extra “baby universes” which branch off from the main universe and return. Universes with these “baby universes” are another example that theorists considered to understand closed universes.

Q: So wait, are you actually saying the universe needs to be observed to exist? That’s ridiculous, didn’t the universe exist long before humans existed to observe it? Is this some sort of Copenhagen Interpretation thing, or that thing called QBism?

You’re starting to ask philosophical questions, and here’s the thing:

There are physicists who spend their time thinking about how to interpret quantum mechanics. They talk to philosophers, and try to figure out how to answer these kinds of questions in a consistent and systematic way, keeping track of all the potential pitfalls and implications. They’re part of a subfield called “quantum foundations”.

The physicists whose work I was talking about in that piece are not those people.

Of the people I interviewed, one of them, Rob Myers, probably has lunch with quantum foundations researchers on occasion. The others, based at places like MIT and the IAS, probably don’t even do that.

Instead, these are people trying to solve a technical problem, people whose first inclination is to put philosophy to the side, and “shut up and calculate”. These people did a calculation that ought to have worked, checking how many quantum states they could find in a closed universe, and found a weird and annoying answer: just one. Trying to solve the problem, they’ve done technical calculation work, introducing a path through the universe, or a boundary around an observer, and seeing what happens. While some of them may have their own philosophical leanings, they’re not writing works of philosophy. Their papers don’t talk through the philosophical implications of their ideas in all that much detail, and they may well have different thoughts as to what those implications are.

So while I suspect I know the answers they would give to some of these questions, I’m not sure.

Instead, how about I tell you what I think?

I’m not a philosopher, I can’t promise my views will be consistent, that they won’t suffer from some pitfall. But unlike other people’s views, I can tell you what my own views are.

To start off: yes, the universe existed before humans. No, there is nothing special about our minds, we don’t have psychic powers to create the universe with our thoughts or anything dumb like that.

What I think is that, if we want to describe the world, we ought to take lessons from science.

Science works. It works for many reasons, but two important ones stand out.

Science works because it leads to technology, and it leads to technology because it guides actions. It lets us ask, if I do this, what will happen? What will I experience?

And science works because it lets people reach agreement. It lets people reach agreement because it lets us ask, if I observe this, what do I expect you to observe? And if we agree, we can agree on the science.

Ultimately, if we want to describe the world with the virtues of science, our descriptions need to obey this rule: they need to let us ask “what if?” questions about observations.

That means that science cannot avoid an observer. It can often hide the observer, place them far away and give them an infinite mind to behold what they see, so that one observer is essentially the same as another. But we shouldn’t expect to always be able to do this. Sometimes, we can’t avoid saying something about the observer: about where they are, or how big they are, for example.

These observers, though, don’t have to actually exist. We should be able to ask “what if” questions about others, and that means we should be able to dream up fictional observers, and ask, if they existed, what would they see? We can imagine observers swimming in the quark-gluon plasma after the Big Bang, or sitting inside a black hole’s event horizon, or outside our visible universe. The existence of the observer isn’t a physical requirement, but a methodological one: a restriction on how we can make useful, scientific statements about the world. Our theory doesn’t have to explain where observers “come from”, and can’t and shouldn’t do that. The observers aren’t part of the physical world being described, they’re a precondition for us to describe that world.

Is this the Copenhagen Interpretation? I’m not a historian, but I don’t think so. The impression I get is that there was no real Copenhagen Interpretation, that Bohr and Heisenberg, while more deeply interested in philosophy than many physicists today, didn’t actually think things through in enough depth to have a perspective you can name and argue with.

Is this QBism? I don’t think so. It aligns with some things QBists say, but they say a lot of silly things as well. It’s probably some kind of instrumentalism, for what that’s worth.

Is it logical positivism? I’ve been told logical positivists would argue that the world outside the visible universe does not exist. If that’s true, I’m not a logical positivist.

Is it pragmatism? Maybe? What I’ve seen of pragmatism definitely appeals to me, but I’ve seen my share of negative characterizations as well.

In the end, it’s an idea about what’s useful and what’s not, about what moves science forward and what doesn’t. It tries to avoid being preoccupied with unanswerable questions, and as much as possible to cash things out in testable statements. If I do this, what happens? What if I did that instead?

The results I covered for Quanta, to me, show that the observer matters on a deep level. That isn’t a physical statement, it isn’t a mystical statement. It’s a methodological statement: if we want to be scientists, we can’t give up on the observer.

Fear of the Dark, Physics Version

Did the South Pole Telescope Just Rule Out Neutrino Masses? Not Exactly, Followed by My Speculations

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Recently, the South Pole Telescope’s SPT-3G collaboration released new measurements of the cosmic microwave background, the leftover light from the formation of the first atoms. By measuring this light, cosmologists can infer the early universe’s “shape”: how it rippled on different scales as it expanded into the universe we know today. They compare this shape to mathematical models, equations and simulations which tie together everything we know about gravity and matter, and try to see what it implies for those models’ biggest unknowns.

Some of the most interesting such unknowns are neutrino masses. We know that neutrinos have mass because they transform as they move, from one type of neutrino to another. Those transformations let physicists measure the differences between neutrino masses, but but themselves, they don’t say what the actual masses are. All we know from particle physics, at this point, is a minimum: in order for the neutrinos to differ in mass enough to transform in the way they do, the total mass of the three flavors of neutrino must be at least 0.06 electron-Volts.

(Divided by the speed of light squared to get the right units, if you’re picky about that sort of thing. Physicists aren’t.)

Neutrinos also influenced the early universe, shaping it in a noticeably different way than heavier particles that bind together into atoms, like electrons and protons, did. That effect, observed in the cosmic microwave background and in the distribution of galaxies in the universe today, lets cosmologists calculate a maximum: if neutrinos are more massive than a certain threshold, they could not have the effects cosmologists observe.

Over time as measurements improved, this maximum has decreased. Now, the South Pole Telescope has added more data to the pool, and combining it with prior measurements…well, I’ll quote their paper:

Ok, it’s probably pretty hard to understand what that means if you’re not a physicist. To explain:

There are two different hypotheses for how neutrino masses work, called “hierarchies”. In the “normal” hierarchy, the neutrinos go in the same order as the particles they interact with with the weak nuclear force: electron-neutrinos are lighter than muon neutrinos, which are lighter than tau neutrinos. In the “inverted” hierarchy, they come in the opposite order, and the electron neutrino is the heaviest. Both of these are consistent with the particle-physics data.
Confidence is a statistics thing, which could take a lot of unpacking to define correctly. To give a short but likely tortured-sounding explanation: when you rule out a hypothesis with a certain confidence level, you’re saying that, if that hypothesis was true, there would only be a 100%-minus-that-chance chance that you would see what you actually observed.

So, what are the folks at the South Pole Telescope saying? They’re saying that if you put all the evidence together (that’s roughly what that pile of acroynms at the beginning means), then the result would be incredibly uncharacteristic for either hypothesis for neutrino masses. If you had “normal” neutrino masses, you’d only see these cosmological observations 2.1% of the time. And if you had inverted neutrino masses instead, you’d only see these observations 0.01% of the time!

That sure makes it sound like neither hypothesis is correct, right? Does it actually mean that?

I mean, it could! But I don’t think so. Here I’ll start speculating on the possibilities, from least likely in my opinion to most likely. This is mostly my bias talking, and shouldn’t be taken too seriously.

5. Neutrinos are actually massless

This one is really unlikely. The evidence from particle physics isn’t just quantitative, but qualitative. I don’t know if it’s possible to write down a model that reproduces the results of neutrino oscillation experiments without massive neutrinos, and if it is it would be a very bizarre model that would almost certainly break something else. This is essentially a non-starter.

4. This is a sign of interesting new physics

I mean, it would be nice, right? I’m sure there are many proposals at this point, tweaks that add a few extra fields with some hard-to-notice effects to explain the inconsistency. I can’t rule this out, and unlike the last point there isn’t anything about it that seems impossible. But we’ve had a lot of odd observations, and so far this hasn’t happened.

3. Someone did statistics wrong

This happens more often. Any argument like this is a statistical argument, and while physicists keep getting better at statistics, they’re not professional statisticians. Sometimes there’s a genuine misunderstanding that goes in to testing a model, and once it gets resolved the problem goes away.

2. The issue will go away with more data

The problem could also just…go away. 97.9% confidence sounds huge…but in physics, the standards are higher: you need 99.99994% to announce a new discovery. Physicists do a lot of experiments and observations, and sometimes, they see weird things! As the measurements get more precise, we may well see the disagreement melt away, and cosmology and particle physics both point to the same range for neutrino masses. It’s happened to many other measurements before.

1. We’re reaching the limits of our current approach to cosmology

This is probably not actually the most likely possibility, but it’s my list, what are you going to do?

There are basic assumptions behind how most theoretical physicists do cosmology. These assumptions are reasonably plausible, and seem to be needed to do anything at all. But they can be relaxed. Our universe looks like it’s homogeneous on the largest scales: the same density on average, in every direction you look. But the way that gets enforced in the mathematical models is very direct, and it may be that a different, more indirect, approach has more flexibility. I’ll probably be writing about this more in future, hopefully somewhere journalistic. But there are some very cool ideas floating around, gradually getting fleshed out more and more. It may be that the answer to many of the mysteries of cosmology right now is not new physics, but new mathematics: a new approach to modeling the universe.

Lambda-CDM Is Not Like the Standard Model

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A statistician will tell you that all models are wrong, but some are useful.

Particle physicists have an enormously successful model called the Standard Model, which describes the world in terms of seventeen quantum fields, giving rise to particles from the familiar electron to the challenging-to-measure Higgs boson. The model has nineteen parameters, numbers that aren’t predicted by the model itself but must be found by doing experiments and finding the best statistical fit. With those numbers as input, the model is extremely accurate, aside from the occasional weird discrepancy.

Cosmologists have their own very successful standard model that they use to model the universe as a whole. Called ΛCDM, it describes the universe in terms of three things: dark energy, denoted with a capital lambda (Λ), cold dark matter (CDM), and ordinary matter, all interacting with each other via gravity. The model has six parameters, which must be found by observing the universe and finding the best statistical fit. When those numbers are input, the model is extremely accurate, though there have recently been some high-profile discrepancies.

These sound pretty similar. You model the world as a list of things, fix your parameters based on nature, and make predictions. Wikipedia has a nice graphic depicting the quantum fields of the Standard Model, and you could imagine a similar graphic for ΛCDM.

A graphic like that would be misleading, though.

ΛCDM doesn’t just propose a list of fields and let them interact freely. Instead, it tries to model the universe as a whole, which means it carries assumptions about how matter and energy are distributed, and how space-time is shaped. Some of this is controlled by its parameters, and by tweaking them one can model a universe that varies in different ways. But other assumptions are baked in. If the universe had a very different shape, caused by a very different distribution of matter and energy, then we would need a very different model to represent it. We couldn’t use ΛCDM.

The Standard Model isn’t like that. If you collide two protons together, you need a model of how quarks are distributed inside protons. But that model isn’t the Standard Model, it’s a separate model used for that particular type of experiment. The Standard Model is supposed to be the big picture, the stuff that exists and affects every experiment you can do.

That means the Standard Model is supported in a way that ΛCDM isn’t. The Standard Model describes many different experiments, and is supported by almost all of them. When an experiment disagrees, it has specific implications for part of the model only. For example, neutrinos have mass, which was not predicted in the Standard Model, but it proved easy for people to modify the model to fit. We know the Standard Model is not the full picture, but we also know that any deviations from it must be very small. Large deviations would contradict other experiments, or more basic principles like probabilities needing to be smaller than one.

In contrast, ΛCDM is really just supported by one experiment. We have one universe to observe. We can gather a lot of data, measuring it from its early history to the recent past. But we can’t run it over and over again under different conditions, and our many measurements are all measuring different aspects of the same thing. That’s why unlike in the Standard Model, we can’t separate out assumptions about the shape of the universe from assumptions about what it contains. Dark energy and dark matter are on the same footing as distribution of fluctuations and homogeneity and all those shape-related words, part of one model that gets fit together as a whole.

And so while both the Standard Model and ΛCDM are successful, that success means something different. It’s hard to imagine that we find new evidence and discover that electrons don’t exist, or quarks don’t exist. But we may well find out that dark energy doesn’t exist, or that the universe has a radically different shape. The statistical success of ΛCDM is impressive, and it means any alternative has a high bar to clear. But it doesn’t have to mean rethinking everything the way an alternative to the Standard Model would.

Which String Theorists Are You Complaining About?

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Do string theorists have an unfair advantage? Do they have an easier time getting hired, for example?

In one of the perennial arguments about this on Twitter, Martin Bauer posted a bar chart of faculty hires in the US by sub-field. The chart was compiled by Erich Poppitz from data in the US particle physics rumor mill, a website where people post information about who gets hired where for the US’s quite small number of permanent theoretical particle physics positions at research universities and national labs. The data covers 1994 to 2017, and shows one year, 1999, when there were more string theorists hired than all other topics put together. The years around then also had many string theorists hired, but the proportion starts falling around the mid 2000’s…around when Lee Smolin wrote a book, The Trouble With Physics, arguing that string theorists had strong-armed their way into academic dominance. After that, the percentage of string theorists falls, oscillating between a tenth and a quarter of total hires.

Judging from that, you get the feeling that string theory’s critics are treating a temporary hiring fad as if it was a permanent fact. The late 1990’s were a time of high-profile developments in string theory that excited a lot of people. Later, other hiring fads dominated, often driven by experiments: I remember when the US decided to prioritize neutrino experiments and neutrino theorists had a much easier time getting hired, and there seem to be similar pushes now with gravitational waves, quantum computing, and AI.

Thinking about the situation in this way, though, ignores what many of the critics have in mind. That’s because the “string” column on that bar chart is not necessarily what people think of when they think of string theory.

If you look at the categories on Poppitz’s bar chart, you’ll notice something odd. “String” its itself a category. Another category, “lattice”, refers to lattice QCD, a method to find the dynamics of quarks numerically. The third category, though, is a combination of three things “ph/th/cosm”.

“Cosm” here refers to cosmology, another sub-field. “Ph” and “th” though aren’t really sub-fields. Instead, they’re arXiv categories, sections of the website arXiv.org where physicists post papers before they submit them to journals. The “ph” category is used for phenomenology, the type of theoretical physics where people try to propose models of the real world and make testable predictions. The “th” category is for “formal theory”, papers where theoretical physicists study the kinds of theories they use in more generality and develop new calculation methods, with insights that over time filter into “ph” work.

“String”, on the other hand, is not an arXiv category. When string theorists write papers, they’ll put them into “th” or “ph” or another relevant category (for example “gr-qc”, for general relativity and quantum cosmology). This means that when Poppitz distinguishes “ph/th/cosm” from “string”, he’s being subjective, using his own judgement to decide who counts as a string theorist.

So who counts as a string theorist? The simplest thing to do would be to check if their work uses strings. Failing that, they could use other tools of string theory and its close relatives, like Calabi-Yau manifolds, M-branes, and holography.

That might be what Poppitz was doing, but if he was, he was probably missing a lot of the people critics of string theory complain about. He even misses many people who describe themselves as string theorists. In an old post of mine I go through the talks at Strings, string theory’s big yearly conference, giving them finer-grained categories. The majority don’t use anything uniquely stringy.

Instead, I think critics of string theory have two kinds of things in mind.

First, most of the people who made their reputations on string theory are still in academia, and still widely respected. Some of them still work on string theory topics, but many now work on other things. Because they’re still widely respected, their interests have a substantial influence on the field. When one of them starts looking at connections between theories of two-dimensional materials, you get a whole afternoon of talks at Strings about theories of two-dimensional materials. Working on those topics probably makes it a bit easier to get a job, but also, many of the people working on them are students of these highly respected people, who just because of that have an easier time getting a job. If you’re a critic of string theory who thinks the founders of the field led physics astray, then you probably think they’re still leading physics astray even if they aren’t currently working on string theory.

Second, for many other people in physics, string theorists are their colleagues and friends. They’ll make fun of trends that seem overhyped and under-thought, like research on the black hole information paradox or the swampland, or hopes that a slightly tweaked version of supersymmetry will show up soon at the LHC. But they’ll happily use ideas developed in string theory when they prove handy, using supersymmetric theories to test new calculation techniques, string theory’s extra dimensions to inspire and ground new ideas for dark matter, or the math of strings themselves as interesting shortcuts to particle physics calculations. String theory is available as reference to these people in a way that other quantum gravity proposals aren’t. That’s partly due to familiarity and shared language (I remember a talk at Perimeter where string theorists wanted to learn from practitioners from another area and the discussion got bogged down by how they were using the word “dimension”), but partly due to skepticism of the various alternate approaches. Most people have some idea in their heads of deep problems with various proposals: screwing up relativity, making nonsense out of quantum mechanics, or over-interpreting on limited evidence. The most commonly believed criticisms are usually wrong, with objections long-known to practitioners of the alternate approaches, and so those people tend to think they’re being treated unfairly. But the wrong criticisms are often simplified versions of correct criticisms, passed down by the few people who dig deeply into these topics, criticisms that the alternative approaches don’t have good answers to.

The end result is that while string theory itself isn’t dominant, a sort of “string friendliness” is. Most of the jobs aren’t going to string theorists in the literal sense. But the academic world string theorists created keeps turning. People still respect string theorists and the research directions they find interesting, and people are still happy to collaborate and discuss with string theorists. For research communities people are more skeptical of, it must feel very isolating, like the world is still being run by their opponents. But this isn’t the kind of hegemony that can be solved by a revolution. Thinking that string theory is a failed research program, and people focused on it should have a harder time getting hired, is one thing. Thinking that everyone who respects at least one former string theorist should have a harder time getting hired is a very different goal. And if what you’re complaining about is “string friendliness”, not actual string theorists, then that’s what you’re asking for.

Generalize

Physics’ Unique Nightmare

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Halloween is coming up, so let’s talk about the most prominent monster of the physics canon, the nightmare scenario.

Not to be confused with the D&D Nightmare, which once was a convenient source of infinite consumable items for mid-level characters.

Right now, thousands of physicists search for more information about particle physics beyond our current Standard Model. They look at data from the Large Hadron Collider to look for signs of new particles and unexpected behavior, they try to detect a wide range of possible dark matter particles, and they make very precise measurements to try to detect subtle deviations. And in the back of their minds, almost all of those physicists wonder if they’ll find anything at all.

It’s not that we think the Standard Model is right. We know it has problems, deep mathematical issues that make it give nonsense answers and an apparent big mismatch with what we observe about the motion of matter and light in the universe. (You’ve probably heard this mismatch called dark matter and dark energy.)

But none of those problems guarantee an answer soon. The Standard Model will eventually fail, but it may fail only for very difficult and expensive experiments, not a Large Hadron Collider but some sort of galactic-scale Large Earth Collider. It might be that none of the experiments or searches or theories those thousands of physicists are working on will tell them anything they didn’t already know. That’s the nightmare scenario.

I don’t know another field that has a nightmare scenario quite like this. In most fields, one experiment or another might fail, not just not giving the expected evidence but not teaching anything new. But most experiments teach us something new. We don’t have a theory, in almost any field, that has the potential to explain every observation up to the limits of our experiments, but which we still hope to disprove. Only the Standard Model is like that.

And while thousands of physicists are exposed to this nightmare scenario, the majority of physicists aren’t. Physics isn’t just the science of the reductionistic laws of the smallest constituents of matter. It’s also the study of physical systems, from the bubbling chaos of nuclear physics to the formation of planets and galaxies and black holes, to the properties of materials to the movement of bacteria on a petri dish and bees in a hive. It’s also the development of new methods, from better control of individual atoms and quantum states to powerful new tricks for calculation. For some, it can be the discovery, not of reductionistic laws of the smallest scales, but of general laws of the largest scales, of how systems with many different origins can show echoes of the same behavior.

Over time, more and more of those thousands of physicists break away from the nightmare scenario, “waking up” to new questions of these kinds. For some, motivated by puzzles and skill and the beauty of physics, the change is satisfying, a chance to work on ideas that are moving forward, connected with experiment or grounded in evolving mathematics. But if your motivation is really tied to those smallest scales, to that final reductionistic “why”, then such a shift won’t be satisfying, and this is a nightmare you won’t wake up from.

Me, I’m not sure. I’m a tool-builder, and I used to tell myself that tool-builders are always needed. But I find I do care, in the end, what my tools are used for. And as we approach the nightmare scenario, I’m not at all sure I know how to wake up.

Neutrinos and Guarantees

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The Higgs boson, or something like it, was pretty much guaranteed.

When physicists turned on the Large Hadron Collider, we didn’t know exactly what they would find. Instead of the Higgs boson, there might have been many strange new particles with different properties. But we knew they had to find something, because without the Higgs boson or a good substitute, the Standard Model is inconsistent. Try to calculate what would happen at the LHC using the Standard Model without the Higgs boson, and you get literal nonsense: chances of particles scattering that are greater than one, a mathematical impossibility. Without the Higgs boson, the Standard Model had to be wrong, and had to go wrong specifically when that machine was turned on. In effect, the LHC was guaranteed to give a Nobel prize.

The LHC also searches for other things, like supersymmetric partner particles. It, and a whole zoo of other experiments, also search for dark matter, narrowing down the possibilities. But unlike the Higgs, none of these searches for dark matter or supersymmetric partners is guaranteed to find something new.

We’re pretty certain that something like dark matter exists, and that it is in some sense “matter”. Galaxies rotate, and masses bend light, in a way that seems only consistent with something new in the universe we didn’t predict. Observations of the whole universe, like the cosmic microwave background, let us estimate the properties of this something new, finding it to behave much more like matter than like radio waves or X-rays. So we call it dark matter.

But none of that guarantees that any of these experiments will find dark matter. The dark matter particles could have many different masses. They might interact faintly with ordinary matter, or with themselves, or almost not at all. They might not technically be particles at all. Each experiment makes some assumption, but no experiment yet can cover the most pessimistic possibility, that dark matter simply doesn’t interact in any usefully detectable way aside from by gravity.

Neutrinos also hide something new. The Standard Model predicts that neutrinos shouldn’t have mass, since it would screw up the way they mess with the mirror symmetry of the universe. But they do, in fact, have mass. We know because they oscillate, because they change when traveling, from one type to another, and that means those types must be mixes of different masses.

It’s not hard to edit the Standard Model to give neutrinos masses. But there’s more than one way to do it. Every way adds new particles we haven’t yet seen. And none of them tell us what neutrino masses should be. So there are a number of experiments, another zoo, trying to find out. (Maybe this one’s an aquarium?)

Are those experiments guaranteed to work?

Not so much as the LHC was to find the Higgs, but more than the dark matter experiments.

We particle physicists have a kind of holy book, called the Particle Data Book. It summarizes everything we know about every particle, and explains why we know it. It has many pages with many sections, but if you turn to page 10 of this section, you’ll find a small table about neutrinos. The table gives a limit: the neutrino mass is less than 0.8 eV (a mysterious unit called an electron-volt, about ten-to-the-minus-sixteen grams). That limit comes from careful experiments, using E=mc^2 to find what the missing mass could be when an electron-neutrino shoots out in radioactive beta decay. The limit is an inequality, “less than” rather than “equal to”, because the experiments haven’t detected any missing mass yet. So far, they only can tell us what they haven’t seen.

As these experiments get more precise, you could imagine them getting close enough to see some missing mass, and find the mass of a neutrino. And this would be great, and a guaranteed discovery, except that the neutrino they’re measuring isn’t guaranteed to have a mass at all.

We know the neutrino types have different masses, because they oscillate as they travel between the types. But one of the types might have zero mass, and it could well be the electron-neutrino. If it does, then careful experiments on electron-neutrinos may never give us a mass.

Still, there’s a better guarantee than for dark matter. That’s because we can do other experiments, to test the other types of neutrino. These experiments are harder to do, and the bounds they get are less precise. But if the electron neutrino really is massless, then we could imagine getting better and better at these different experiments, until one of them measures something, detecting some missing mass.

(Cosmology helps too. Wiggles in the shape of the universe gives us an estimate of the total, the mass of all the neutrinos averaged together. Currently, it gives another upper bound, but it could give a lower bound as well, which could be used along with weaker versions of the other experiments to find the answer.)

So neutrinos aren’t quite the guarantee the Higgs was, but they’re close. As the experiments get better, key questions will start to be answerable. And another piece of beyond-the-standard-model physics will be understood.

Amplitudes 2023 Retrospective

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I’m back from CERN this week, with a bit more time to write, so I thought I’d share some thoughts about last week’s Amplitudes conference.

One thing I got wrong in last week’s post: I’ve now been told only 213 people actually showed up in person, as opposed to the 250-ish estimate I had last week. This may seem fewer than Amplitudes in Prague had, but it seems likely they had a few fewer show up than appeared on the website. Overall, the field is at least holding steady from year to year, and definitely has grown since the pandemic (when 2019’s 175 was already a very big attendance).

It was cool having a conference in CERN proper, surrounded by the history of European particle physics. The lecture hall had an abstract particle collision carved into the wood, and the visitor center would in principle have had Standard Model coffee mugs were they not sold out until next May. (There was still enough other particle physics swag, Swiss chocolate, and Swiss chocolate that was also particle physics swag.) I’d planned to stay on-site at the CERN hostel, but I ended up appreciated not doing that: the folks who did seemed to end up a bit cooped up by the end of the conference, even with the conference dinner as a chance to get out.

Past Amplitudes conferences have had associated public lectures. This time we had a not-supposed-to-be-public lecture, a discussion between Nima Arkani-Hamed and Beate Heinemann about the future of particle physics. Nima, prominent as an amplitudeologist, also has a long track record of reasoning about what might lie beyond the Standard Model. Beate Heinemann is an experimentalist, one who has risen through the ranks of a variety of different particle physics experiments, ending up well-positioned to take a broad view of all of them.

It would have been fun if the discussion erupted into an argument, but despite some attempts at provocative questions from the audience that was not going to happen, as Beate and Nima have been friends for a long time. Instead, they exchanged perspectives: on what’s coming up experimentally, and what theories could explain it. Both argued that it was best to have many different directions, a variety of experiments covering a variety of approaches. (There wasn’t any evangelism for particular experiments, besides a joking sotto voce mention of a muon collider.) Nima in particular advocated that, whether theorist or experimentalist, you have to have some belief that what you’re doing could lead to a huge breakthrough. If you think of yourself as just a “foot soldier”, covering one set of checks among many, then you’ll lose motivation. I think Nima would agree that this optimism is irrational, but necessary, sort of like how one hears (maybe inaccurately) that most new businesses fail, but someone still needs to start businesses.

Michelangelo Mangano’s talk on Thursday covered similar ground, but with different emphasis. He agrees that there are still things out there worth discovering: that our current model of the Higgs, for instance, is in some ways just a guess: a simplest-possible answer that doesn’t explain as much as we’d like. But he also emphasized that Standard Model physics can be “new physics” too. Just because we know the model doesn’t mean we can calculate its consequences, and there are a wealth of results from the LHC that improve our models of protons, nuclei, and the types of physical situations they partake in, without changing the Standard Model.

We saw an impressive example of this in Gregory Korchemsky’s talk on Wednesday. He presented an experimental mystery, an odd behavior in the correlation of energies of jets of particles at the LHC. These jets can include a very large number of particles, enough to make it very hard to understand them from first principles. Instead, Korchemsky tried out our field’s favorite toy model, where such calculations are easier. By modeling the situation in the limit of a very large number of particles, he was able to reproduce the behavior of the experiment. The result was a reminder of what particle physics was like before the Standard Model, and what it might become again: partial models to explain odd observations, a quest to use the tools of physics to understand things we can’t just a priori compute.

On the other hand, amplitudes does do a priori computations pretty well as well. Fabrizio Caola’s talk opened the conference by reminding us just how much our precise calculations can do. He pointed out that the LHC has only gathered 5% of its planned data, and already it is able to rule out certain types of new physics to fairly high energies (by ruling out indirect effects, that would show up in high-precision calculations). One of those precise calculations featured in the next talk, by Guilio Gambuti. (A FORM user, his diagrams were the basis for the header image of my Quanta article last winter.) Tiziano Peraro followed up with a technique meant to speed up these kinds of calculations, a trick to simplify one of the more computationally intensive steps in intersection theory.

The rest of Monday was more mathematical, with talks by Zeno Capatti, Jaroslav Trnka, Chia-Kai Kuo, Anastasia Volovich, Francis Brown, Michael Borinsky, and Anna-Laura Sattelberger. Borinksy’s talk felt the most practical, a refinement of his numerical methods complete with some actual claims about computational efficiency. Francis Brown discussed an impressively powerful result, a set of formulas that manages to unite a variety of invariants of Feynman diagrams under a shared explanation.

Tuesday began with what I might call “visitors”: people from adjacent fields with an interest in amplitudes. Alday described how the duality between string theory in AdS space and super Yang-Mills on the boundary can be used to get quite concrete information about string theory, calculating how the theory’s amplitudes are corrected by the curvature of AdS space using a kind of “bootstrap” method that felt nicely familiar. Tim Cohen talked about a kind of geometric picture of theories that extend the Standard Model, including an interesting discussion of whether it’s really “geometric”. Marko Simonovic explained how the integration techniques we develop in scattering amplitudes can also be relevant in cosmology, especially for the next generation of “sky mappers” like the Euclid telescope. This talk was especially interesting to me since this sort of cosmology has a significant presence at CEA Paris-Saclay. Along those lines an interesting paper, “Cosmology meets cohomology”, showed up during the conference. I haven’t had a chance to read it yet!

Just before lunch, we had David Broadhurst give one of his inimitable talks, complete with number theory, extremely precise numerics, and literary and historical references (apparently, Källén died flying his own plane). He also remedied a gap in our whimsically biological diagram naming conventions, renaming the pedestrian “double-box” as a (in this context, Orwellian) lobster. Karol Kampf described unusual structures in a particular Effective Field Theory, while Henriette Elvang’s talk addressed what would become a meaningful subtheme of the conference, where methods from the mathematical field of optimization help amplitudes researchers constrain the space of possible theories. Giulia Isabella covered another topic on this theme later in the day, though one of her group’s selling points is managing to avoid quite so heavy-duty computations.

The other three talks on Tuesday dealt with amplitudes techniques for gravitational wave calculations, as did the first talk on Wednesday. Several of the calculations only dealt with scattering black holes, instead of colliding ones. While some of the results can be used indirectly to understand the colliding case too, a method to directly calculate behavior of colliding black holes came up again and again as an important missing piece.

The talks on Wednesday had to start late, owing to a rather bizarre power outage (the lights in the room worked fine, but not the projector). Since Wednesday was the free afternoon (home of quickly sold-out CERN tours), this meant there were only three talks: Veneziano’s talk on gravitational scattering, Korchemsky’s talk, and Nima’s talk. Nima famously never finishes on time, and this time attempted to control his timing via the surprising method of presenting, rather than one topic, five “abstracts” on recent work that he had not yet published. Even more surprisingly, this almost worked, and he didn’t run too ridiculously over time, while still managing to hint at a variety of ways that the combinatorial lessons behind the amplituhedron are gradually yielding useful perspectives on more general realistic theories.

Thursday, Andrea Puhm began with a survey of celestial amplitudes, a topic that tries to build the same sort of powerful duality used in AdS/CFT but for flat space instead. They’re gradually tackling the weird, sort-of-theory they find on the boundary of flat space. The two next talks, by Lorenz Eberhardt and Hofie Hannesdottir, shared a collaborator in common, namely Sebastian Mizera. They also shared a common theme, taking a problem most people would have assumed was solved and showing that approaching it carefully reveals extensive structure and new insights.

Cristian Vergu, in turn, delved deep into the literature to build up a novel and unusual integration method. We’ve chatted quite a bit about it at the Niels Bohr Institute, so it was nice to see it get some attention on the big stage. We then had an afternoon of trips beyond polylogarithms, with talks by Anne Spiering, Christoph Nega, and Martijn Hidding, each pushing the boundaries of what we can do with our hardest-to-understand integrals. Einan Gardi and Ruth Britto finished the day, with a deeper understanding of the behavior of high-energy particles and a new more mathematically compatible way of thinking about “cut” diagrams, respectively.

On Friday, João Penedones gave us an update on a technique with some links to the effective field theory-optimization ideas that came up earlier, one that “bootstraps” whole non-perturbative amplitudes. Shota Komatsu talked about an intriguing variant of the “planar” limit, one involving large numbers of particles and a slick re-writing of infinite sums of Feynman diagrams. Grant Remmen and Cliff Cheung gave a two-parter on a bewildering variety of things that are both surprisingly like, and surprisingly unlike, string theory: important progress towards answering the question “is string theory unique?”

Friday afternoon brought the last three talks of the conference. James Drummond had more progress trying to understand the symbol letters of supersymmetric Yang-Mills, while Callum Jones showed how Feynman diagrams can apply to yet another unfamiliar field, the study of vortices and their dynamics. Lance Dixon closed the conference without any Greta Thunberg references, but with a result that explains last year’s mystery of antipodal duality. The explanation involves an even more mysterious property called antipodal self-duality, so we’re not out of work yet!

At Amplitudes 2023 at CERN

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I’m at the big yearly conference of my sub-field this week, called Amplitudes. This year, surprisingly for the first time, it’s at the very appropriate location of CERN.

Somewhat overshadowed by the very picturesque Alps

Amplitudes keeps on growing. In 2019, we had 175 participants. We were on Zoom in 2020 and 2021, with many more participants, but that probably shouldn’t count. In Prague last year we had 222. This year, I’ve been told we have even more, something like 250 participants (the list online is bigger, but includes people joining on Zoom). We’ve grown due to new students, but also new collaborations: people from adjacent fields who find the work interesting enough to join along. This year we have mathematicians talking about D-modules, bootstrappers finding new ways to get at amplitudes in string theory, beyond-the-standard-model theorists talking about effective field theories, and cosmologists talking about the large-scale structure of the universe.

The talks have been great, from clear discussions of earlier results to fresh-off-the-presses developments, plenty of work in progress, and even one talk where the speaker’s opinion changed during the coffee break. As we’re at CERN, there’s also a through-line about the future of particle physics, with a chat between Nima Arkani-Hamed and the experimentalist Beate Heinemann on Tuesday and a talk by Michelangelo Mangano about the meaning of “new physics” on Thursday.

I haven’t had a ton of time to write, I keep getting distracted by good discussions! As such, I’ll do my usual thing, and say a bit more about specific talks in next week’s post.

4 gravitons

Stories about physics from someone who's been there