ChatGPT and its kin work by using Large Language Models, or LLMs.

A climate model is a pile of mathematics and code, honed on data from the climate of the past. Tell it how the climate starts out, and it will give you a prediction for what happens next.

Similarly, a language model is a pile of mathematics and code, honed on data from the texts of the past. Tell it how a text starts, and it will give you a prediction for what happens next.

We have a rough idea of what a climate model can predict. The climate has to follow the laws of physics, for example. Similarly, a text should follow the laws of grammar, the order of verbs and nouns and so forth. The creators of the earliest, smallest language models figured out how to do that reasonably well.

Texts do more than just follow grammar, though. They can describe the world. And LLMs are both surprisingly good and surprisingly bad at that. They can do a lot when used right, answering test questions most humans would struggle with. But they also “hallucinate”, confidently saying things that have nothing to do with reality.

If you want to understand why large language models make both good predictions and bad, you shouldn’t just think about abstract “texts”. Instead, think about a specific type of text: a story.

Stories follow grammar, most of the time. But they also follow their own logic. The hero sets out, saves the world, and returns home again. The evil queen falls from the tower at the climax of the final battle. There are three princesses, and only the third can break the spell.

We aren’t usually taught this logic, like we’re taught physics or grammar. We learn it from experience, from reading stories and getting used to patterns. It’s the logic, not of how a story must go, but of how a story typically goes. And that question, of what typically comes next, is exactly the question LLMs are designed to answer.

It’s also a question we sometimes answer.

I was a theatre kid, and I loved improv in particular. Some of it was improv comedy, the games and skits you might have seen on “Whose Line is it Anyway?” But some of it was more…hippy stuff.

I’d meet up with a group on Saturdays. One year we made up a creation myth, half-rehearsed and half-improvised, a collection of gods and primordial beings. The next year we moved the story forward. Civilization had risen…and fallen again. We played a group of survivors gathered around a campfire, wary groups wondering what came next.

We plotted out characters ahead of time. I was the “villain”, or the closest we had to one. An enforcer of the just-fallen empire, the oppressor embodied. While the others carried clubs, staves, and farm implements, I was the only one with a real weapon: a sword.

(Plastic in reality, but the audience knew what to do.)

In the arguments and recriminations of the story, that sword set me apart, a constant threat that turned my character from contemptible to dangerous, that gave me a seat at the table even as I antagonized and stirred the pot.

But the story had another direction. The arguments pushed and pulled, and gradually the survivors realized that they would not survive if they did not put their grievances to rest, if they did not seek peace. So, one man stepped forward, and tossed his staff into the fire.

The others followed. One by one, clubs and sticks and menacing tools were cast aside. And soon, I was the only one armed.

If I was behaving logically, if I followed my character’s interests, I would have “won” there. I had gotten what I wanted, now there was no check on my power.

But that wasn’t what the story wanted. Improv is a game of fast decisions and fluid invention. We follow our instincts, and our instincts are shaped by experience. The stories of the past guide our choices, and must often be the only guide: we don’t have time to edit, or to second-guess.

And I felt the story, and what it wanted. It was a command that transcended will, that felt like it left no room for an individual actor making an individual decision.

I cast my sword into the fire.

The instinct that brought me to do that is the same instinct that guides authors when they say that their characters write themselves, when their story goes in an unexpected direction. It’s an instinct that can be tempered and counteracted, with time and effort, because it can easily lead to nonsense. It’s why every good book needs an editor, why improv can be as repetitive as it is magical.

And it’s been the best way I’ve found to understand LLMs.

An LLM telling a story tells a typical story, based on the data used to create it. In the same way, an LLM giving advice gives typical advice, to some extent in content but more importantly in form, advice that is confident and mentions things advice often mentions. An LLM writing a biography will write a typical biography, which may not be your biography, even if your biography was one of those used to create it, because it tries to predict how a biography should go based on all the other biographies. And all of these predictions and hallucinations are very much the kind of snap judgement that disarmed me.

These days, people are trying to build on top of LLMs and make technology that does more, that can edit and check its decisions. For the most part, they’re building these checks out of LLMs. Instead of telling one story, of someone giving advice on the internet, they tell two stories: the advisor and the editor, one giving the advice and one correcting it. They have to tell these stories many times, broken up into many parts, to approximate something other than the improv actor’s first instincts, and that’s why software that does this is substantially more expensive than more basic software that doesn’t.

I can’t say how far they’ll get. Models need data to work well, decisions need reliability to be good, computers need infrastructure to compute. But if you want to understand what’s at an LLM’s beating heart, think about the first instincts you have in writing or in theatre, in stories or in play. Then think about a machine that just does that.